Your Week 11 Sunday preview

It’s getting down to crunch time and teams in contention can’t afford to lose. The big games with playoff implications feature the Eagles at the Packers, the Patriots at the Colts and the Lions at the Cardinals. Weather won’t be a factor in Phoenix or Indianapolis, but it will be in Green Bay where it will be cold and snowy. How the weather affects the Philly offense remains to be seen.

In each of the last two weeks and in three of the last four weeks I’ve gone 3-1 against the spread. Of course, I’m hoping for the same outcome this week, but as I’ve said before, the further we get into the season, the harder it gets to pick winners.

Cleveland Browns (-3.5) vs. Houston Texans

Brian HoyerHoyer has led the Browns to first place in the AFC North.

Weather will play a huge role in this game as it’s expected to be in the mid to upper 30s with some wind at game time. When a dome team comes from the south to play in the elements, weather almost always plays a significant role.

Cleveland has won three in a row and five out of their last six. While Brian Hoyer isn’t an All Pro, he plays within himself and doesn’t make mistakes. The Texans, who have lost four out of their last five, will be starting a new quarterback in Ryan Mallett. I don’t believe he can get it done. Take Cleveland and lay the points.

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks

This is one of the most interesting matchups of the day. Early in the season, Seattle looked like it was going to continue on as one of the best teams in the NFL. That hasn’t happened, as the Seahawks have been very inconsistent. Even though they have won three on a row, Seattle hasn’t looked very convincing except for last Sunday against the Giants.

Kansas City has to win to stay close to Denver. The Chiefs have won four in a row and six out of their last seven. In Kansas City’s last three games at home, they have won convincingly (27, 27 and 14 points). I feel that streak will continue and they will beat Seattle.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) at Carolina Panthers

Matt RyanICONRyan and the Falcons should be able to escape Carolina with a win on Sunday.

Neither of these teams is very good right now, but Atlanta is playing better football than Carolina. Injuries have played a role in both team’s troubles this year.

Carolina isn’t healthy and that starts with quarterback Cam Newton. He struggled last week and I expect that to continue. Atlanta finally got a win last Sunday at Tampa Bay after losing four in a row. They should have beat Detroit in London a few weeks back, but gave the game away.

This matchup could come down to quarterback play and offensive weapons and, right now, Matt Ryan is playing better than Can Newton. The Falcons are the play.

Philadelphia Eagles (+6) at Green Bay Packers

If this game were in Philly, I would take the Eagles without hesitation. But the game is in Green Bay where the Packers almost always play well.

Green Bay destroyed the Bears last week, but the Eagles aren’t the Bears. Mark Sanchez proved that it isn’t about who plays quarterback in Philadelphia, it’s the system. And if the quarterback executes, the team will score.

Green Bay has had problems on defense all year and may not be able to keep up with the Philly offense. Still, Aaron Rodgers is one of the best in the game and when he is on, the Pack always have a chance.

I feel confident Philly will cover the spread, but Green Bay may win by 3. Take the six points.

Follow Greg on Twitter: @greggabe