Month: December 2015

The Florida Gators and Michigan Wolverines were on the downtrend of college football the past couple of seasons, but thanks to new coaching staffs, both of these teams have changed direction rather quickly. Jim McElwain (Florida) and Jim Harbaugh (Michigan) have done more than what was expected in their first seasons, and these two coaches will meet on New Year’s Day in the Citrus Bowl. This matchup was a great surprise, and will certainly be one of the bowls to watch. Here’s what you need to know:

Storylines Heading Into the Game

Florida’s Offense Continues to Ride the Struggle Bus: Ever since Will Grier tested positive for performance enhancing drugs, Florida’s offense hasn’t been the same. Treon Harris has struggled as the team’s starting QB, and just hasn’t looked comfortable at all under center. The offense hit an all-time low in SEC Championship when it put up just 180 total yards. For the Gators to have any sort of chance against Michigan they’ve got to get Harris going early with short, quick passes.

McElwain and Harbaugh Surpassing First Year Expectations: It’s not really a surprise to see both of these programs doing well with their new coaches, but both have certainly exceeded year-one expectations. McElwain took Florida all the way to the SEC Championship when the team was picked to finish near the bottom in preseason polls. Meanwhile, Harbaugh brought Michigan back to relevancy by winning nine games and making them one of the toughest teams to score on.

A Battle of Two Great Defenses: If you love a good defensive duel, then you’re in luck because this game features two of the nation’s best. Florida and Michigan each rank in the top-10 in total defense, with each also ranking in the top-15 in scoring defense. Needless to say, neither of these offenses are looking forward to playing against their opponent’s defense. Whoever can limit mistakes on defense and win the turnover battle will come out on top of this game.

Key Stats

43 – The Florida Gators are tied for 126th in the nation with 43 sacks allowed this season. While young and inexperienced, the Gators’ O-Line held up decently in the first five games, surrendering 10 sacks. But it was downhill from there, and the Treon Harris has felt the brunt of the hits. The O-Line must do a better job of protecting Harris if he’s going to have any shot of being productive this game.

93.88% – Michigan may not have one of the best offenses in the country, but when it comes to redzone efficiency, the Wolverines are money. Michigan has scored 46 out of 49 times when in the redzone, and they’re going to need to take advantage of any trips inside the 20 against this defense. 

45.29 – Florida punter Johnny Townsend has averaged 45.29 yards per punt over the last three games. Field position is going to be a key in this game, and Townsend can be a game-changer for the Gators by pinning the Wolverines deep in their own territory. With Townsend’s ability to pin opponents back behind their own 20, it makes Florida’s job on defense a lot easier.

Key Players

Kelvin Taylor, RB, Florida – With the way Florida’s offense has underwhelmed, Kelvin Taylor really hasn’t gotten the recognition he has deserved. Taylor has run for at least 100 yards in three of his last four games, and is the key for Florida to be successful in this game. Taylor is going to get plenty of carries in this game as Michigan has had trouble stopping the run as of late (746 rush yards surrendered in last three games). If Taylor can find holes early, it will go a long way in helping the passing game for Harris.

Jake Butt, TE, Michigan – Butt was named the best tight end this year after winning the Mackey Award, and he is the key to Michigan’s offense in this game. The Wolverines like to go to Butt early and often, as 30 of his 48 receptions have come in the first half this season. Going up against one of the best secondaries in the country, Butt is going to be QB Jake Rudock’s go-to target early on to gain some confidence.

Why Florida Will Win

Florida will win this game if it can squeeze enough points out of its offense. The offensive line is without a doubt the key component to offensive success for the Gators. A more stable O-Line will give Harris more confidence and he won’t feel like he has to run out of the pocket every time he feels pressure.

Florida is going to show up on defense, that much we know. The good thing for the Gators is that Michigan doesn’t have a great run game or a premiere running back. In all three of the Gators’ losses, each team had a feature back that ran for at least 180 yards. Containing Rudock and Butt are what the Gators should focus on in this game.

Why Michigan Will Win

On offense, Michigan has the upper hand in this one. Rudock improved greatly over the course of the season, and has become one of the better signal callers in the Big Ten. However, the shoulder injury he suffered against Ohio State could cause concern in this game. Facing a strong secondary tandem in Vernon Hargreaves and Jalen Tabor is going to make it that much more important for Rudock to make smart decisions.

Michigan’s defense could end up making New Year’s Day a mess for Florida. The Wolverines have a strong enough pass rush that will cause Harris to get of the ball quicker than he wants to. The one question Michigan faces on defense is if All-American Jabrill Peppers will be able to play or not. If he’s not able to go that’s a big blow to the team, leaving them not only without a standout safety, but one of their better running backs. 

Prediction

This game is going to be an all-out defensive war. What it’s going to come down to is who can hold on to the ball, and make the least amount of mistakes. Contrary to popular belief, Florida will not look as bad on offense as it has in the past few games, but that isn’t saying much. But for the Gators to win, Taylor and Harris each have to have good games in a combined effort. In the end, if Florida can muster up three touchdowns, Jim McElwain should notch his first bowl victory with the team.

Final Score: Florida 21 – Michigan 17

After enjoying three of the six bowl games on Thursday, you better buckle up for an exciting slate of games on New Year’s Day. One of those games is the Rose Bowl between Stanford and Iowa, which can be seen on ESPN at 5 p.m. EST.

Storylines Heading Into the Game 

Very Similar Offenses

When this matchup was first announced, one of the many things that came to mind was the similar offensive strategy of both squads. Nowadays, fewer and fewer offenses are using fullbacks, but Iowa and Stanford are arguably two of the most recognized teams for their use of a fullback. However, don’t think for one second that this game will be boring, because both offenses average over 30 points a game.

Can Iowa Complete a Dream Season?

Besides Iowa fans, it is fair to say that nobody really expected the Hawkeyes to have a 12-win season and play in the Rose Bowl, but they absolutely deserve it. Although Iowa’s schedule was a bit on the easier side, there is no denying what they were able to do against teams like Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Michigan State.

Kevin Hogan’s Last Game

Trying to follow up what Andrew Luck was able to do at Stanford would be a tall task for anyone, but Kevin Hogan stepped up and did a fantastic job. Totaling 9,215 passing yards and 35 wins over his four years in Palo Alto, Hogan led the Cardinal to three Rose Bowls, and is seeking his second Rose Bowl victory on Jan. 1 against Iowa. Now the question is: who will follow up Andrew Luck AND Kevin Hogan?

Key Stats

146- The average amount of rush yards that the Stanford defense allowed per game this season. Playing against a Hawkeye team that revolves their game plan around establishing the run, Stanford cannot let Iowa control the line of scrimmage if they want a shot at winning the Rose Bowl. In Stanford’s two losses (Northwestern and Oregon), their defense allowed over 220 rushing yards, so that will be something to watch as the game unfolds.

334- The average amount of total yards that the Iowa defense allowed per game this season. In a game that will feature Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey, who finished second in the Heisman voting, it will be difficult to keep the Cardinal from racking up yards, but the 21st-ranked defense in the nation is capable of slowing down McCaffrey and company.

268- The amount of all-purpose yards that Christian McCaffrey averaged per game this season. In addition to his production in the run game, McCaffrey also returns kicks and is a very effective pass catcher. Basically, whenever the ball is in his hands, good things happen for the Cardinal.

Key Players

C.J. Beathard, QB, Iowa

With the departure of Jake Rudock, Beathard was able to take over the starting job for the Hawkeyes and he didn’t disappoint. Throwing 15 touchdown passes and only four interceptions, Beathard efficiently ran Kirk Ferentz’s run-heavy offense to near perfection. If the Hawkeyes want to beat Stanford, Beathard will have to make sure his first few throws are on target so that the Stanford linebackers begin to back up, allowing some openings in the run game.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford

The Heisman runner-up will be the main focus in Iowa’s defensive game plan, but preparing for him is one thing, lining up across from him in a game is a totally different monster. Moreover, McCaffrey has been the key to Stanford’s offense all season long and it will not be changing in the biggest game of the year. If you still need convincing, check out the highlight video above. 

Why Iowa Wins

Iowa can win the Rose Bowl if they are able to limit the big plays generated by Christian McCaffrey and win the line of scrimmage battle on both sides of the ball. Also, the Hawkeyes have the ability to put up points, and taking a few chances on some deep throws will open up the rest of Kirk Ferentz’s playbook. Iowa was kind of a “Cinderella” type of team this season, so it’s safe to say a Rose Bowl victory would be a great end to an awesome season.

Why Stanford Wins

Stanford can win the Rose Bowl if they play very disciplined on defense and win the turnover battle in a game where possessions will come at a premium. The Cardinal have the edge on offense and they have a chance to display it on a national stage, so there is no reason to hold back. Additionally, Stanford can help their chances if they are able to get a big play or two from McCaffrey on special teams.

Prediction

First of all, this is a must-watch game and if you don’t tune in for at least part of it, you better have a good excuse. Yes, it features two offenses that still use a fullback, but it also features two consistent quarterbacks, two solid defenses, and Christian McCaffrey. All in all, I think this game will come down to the last possession. Iowa will find enough success in the running game to open up the play-action pass that Beathard is quite good at, while Stanford will be playing against the best defense they’ve seen all year. My prediction is that the wild ride of a season for Iowa will end in a victory at the Rose Bowl.

Final Score: Iowa 24 – Stanford 21

Alabama’s formidable defense will shut down Michigan State on the ground, so can Connor Cook and the Spartans’ aerial attack get the job done? This year’s Cotton Bowl matchup of two preseason titans could be the bowl game of the year.