It’s Draft Day! In what might be the most difficult draft to mock in recent memory, here’s my first and last attempt of the season. Trades are expected to considerably impact the early portion of the first round. In 2016, there were five trades on day one. In 2017, there were six and last year there were seven. Expect movement – and for your reading pleasure, I’ve included a few in this mock.
Enjoy the process!
1. Arizona Cardinals: Nick Bosa, DE. Ohio State
• At no point throughout the process have I logically felt the Cardinals were serious about Kyler Murray. Talent is required across the board and this woeful defense benefits from a plug and play edge with an All-Pro ceiling.
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2. New York Giants: Kyler Murray, QB. Oklahoma (TRADE w/SF)
• Let’s assume the trade up includes both No 6. and 17. Big Blue has kept it close to the vest but must leverage this opportunity to reignite a dispirited fan base in the wake of the Odell Beckham trade.
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3. New York Jets: Josh Allen, EDGE. Kentucky
• Premium pick, premium value position. Gang Green lacks a legitimate cornerstone piece to work with off the edge and Allen reminds me of peak Justin Houston in 2014 (his 22.0 sack season).
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4. Oakland Raiders: Ed Oliver, DT. Houston
• In 2010, Jon Gruden participated in drafting Gerald McCoy, a 3-tech profile who some viewed as being the more natural interior pass rusher compared to Suh. Oliver can bench press interior lineman and plays with speed + leverage.
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5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Quinnen Williams, DT. Alabama
• What would’ve been an ideal spot for a trade down becomes an opportunity. Williams offers positional flexibility for Bowles hybrid setup and tremendous upside. Never look a gift horse in the mouth.
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6. San Francisco 49ers: Jonah Williams, OL. Alabama
• Following a trade down, the 49ers go to the well for another long-term piece along the offensive line. They could use immediate improvement at guard and 2018 first round pick Mike McGlinchey is presently the only tackle signed through 2020.
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7. Cincinnati Bengals: Dwayne Haskins, QB. Ohio State (TRADE w/JAX)
• Simba 7 remains in-state and becomes a Bengal. A fresh, young, offensive-minded Zac Taylor begins his head coaching tenure with the Big Ten’s single-season total yard and touchdown record holder. Cincy can preemptively part with Andy Dalton at no cap penalty in 2020.
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8. Atlanta Falcons: Rashan Gary, DL. Michigan (TRADE w/DET)
• The always-aggressive Thomas Dimitroff has made at least one trade in every draft since becoming GM in 2008. There’s a buzz about Atlanta and Detroit making a deal. Movement skills are valued by Atlanta along the line and Grady Jarrett is a UFA in 2020.
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9. Buffalo Bills: T.J. Hockenson, TE. Iowa
• After spending money on depth at receiver, it’s apparent the Bills brass wants to supply anointed franchise quarterback Josh Allen with as many options as possible as he develops. There remains a hole at tight end and Hockenson is the most complete player at his position in the class.
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10. Denver Broncos: Devin White, LB. LSU
• If this isn’t a quarterback (and I’m about 50/50 on the matter here), White is the obvious and fortunate selection. Denver has a pair of stout run defenders in Jewell and Davis, but White totally revolutionizes the interior of Denver’s linebacking core.
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11. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor, OT. Florida (TRADE w/CIN)
• After moving down to acquire a pick or two, this is improved value for possibly the best long-term tackle in the draft. The talented in-state product helps Nick Foles in the short-term and perhaps whoever the starter is on the end of his bridge deal.
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12. Green Bay Packers: Devin Bush, LB. Michigan
• It’s a new era under second-year GM Brian Gutekunst, who’s breaking some of the organizational molds created by Ted Thompson. With a pair of first round picks, the Pack are well-positioned to address the seemingly perennial need at linebacker with a unique talent in Bush.
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13. Houston Texans: Andre Dillard, OT. Washington State (TRADE w/MIA)
• Houston, initially placed at No. 21 overall, are also armed with back-to-back second round picks (No. 54 and 55) – they must leverage their assets to bolster pass pro. Dillard is the most natural left tackle in the class and compares favorably to Duane Brown.
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14. Detroit Lions: Brian Burns, EDGE. Florida State (TRADE w/DET)
• A fortuitous conclusion following a trade down, as Detroit is still able to inject twitch and athleticism off the edge to complement the signing of Trey Flowers. Lions get faster on defense.
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15. Washington Redskins: Drew Lock, QB. Missouri
• It’s tough to predict how the ‘Skins will approach the quarterback position on draft day, but should this scenario materialize without a trade up it’d alleviate some of the organizational misfortune of Alex Smith’s injury. Prototypical, tools-based passer for Jay Gruden to polish.
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16. Carolina Panthers: Noah Fant, TE. Iowa
• When healthy, Greg Olsen is still a threat but Fant is a unique weapon who can be aligned as a traditional tight end, as a big slot or even as a boundary mismatch a la Devin Funchess. Also a red-zone terror.
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17. San Francisco 49ers: Marquise Brown, WR. Oklahoma (TRADE w/NYG)
• With the second of two first round picks (courtesy a mocked trade down with the Giants), San Francisco adds an electric vertical passing game weapon. Brown is ultra-productive and hurts defenses in space. He missed the combine due to a Lisfranc injury, but is expected to be ready for camp.
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18. Minnesota Vikings: Cody Ford, OG. Oklahoma
• Plainly put, Minnesota desperately needs to reinforce the offensive line and protect the Kirk Cousins investment. If they’re as intent on running the ball as Mike Zimmer wants, Ford is the ideal profile and they’ve had success with Sooners. Played right tackle in 2018, but he can be an elite guard.
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19. Tennessee Titans: Garrett Bradbury, OG/C. NC State
• Interior offensive line was a legitimate sore spot in 2018 and while Rodger Saffold was added, more is required. Bradbury is a one-stop addition that will immediately elevate either the right guard or (his natural) center position. A former tight end, he has the athleticism to accommodate the mobile Mariota.
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20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Greedy Williams, CB. LSU
• Perhaps the leader of a markedly imperfect but talented cornerback class, Greedy is the prototypical long, athletic boundary profile. I don’t rule out a handful of the remaining front-seven pieces still on the board either.
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21. Seattle Seahawks: Clelin Ferrell, DE. Clemson
• Frank Clark out, Clelin Ferrell in. An economically savvy transaction for Seattle, also adding a polished plug and play edge with a three-down skill-set.
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22. Baltimore Ravens: Elgton Jenkins, OG/C. Mississippi State
• Three-position interior power blocker with prototypical size. The ideal addition to accommodate the down-hill, man-to-man based approach that appeals to new offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
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23. Miami Dolphins: Jeffery Simmons, DT. Mississippi State
• In this scenario, understand two things: 1. The ‘Phins have conceded this isn’t their year to address quarterback early, 2. They’re all-in on a rebuild year in 2019. Simmons is a top 10 talent and could be an All-Pro if given time to recover from a torn ACL suffered in February. No edge value remains, so they stash a gem.
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24. Oakland Raiders: DeAndre Baker, CB. Georgia
• Perhaps he’s a nickel at the next level, but he provides sticky coverage and plays a physical game with experience on the boundary. Nevin Lawson was brought in for depth, but this represents a large improvement.
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25. Philadelphia Eagles: Josh Jacobs, RB. Alabama
• The roster is well-built, so aside from acquiring a succession plan for Jason Peters or preemptive receiver depth, this stands as a big talent upgrade in the backfield. Philly fields a stable of decent ‘backs, but few of which would start elsewhere and Jordan Howard is a UFA in 2020.
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26. Indianapolis Colts: Christian Wilkins, DT. Clemson
• If there’s one thing Chris Ballard has proven in his time relatively short time in Indy, it’s a willingness to build in the trenches. This is true of the organization he came from in KC – and what a bargain Wilkins would be at this point.
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27. Oakland Raiders: Chris Lindstrom, OG. Boston College
• Rookie GM Mike Mayock puts his stamp on the first round by selecting a fellow Eagle alum. Too easy, right? Emotional attachment aside, trading Kelechi Osemele to the Jets has left behind a need at guard. Gruden has a first round O-line track record as well.
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28. Los Angeles Chargers: Kaleb McGary, OT. Washington
• Telesco needs a trench upgrade, be it on offense or defense. A big, projectable blocker with power and length, Kaleb McGary steps into the right tackle spot immediately. He also projects quite well inside if required. A pick for the O-line is a pick for Rivers.
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29. Denver Broncos: Daniel Jones, QB. Duke (TRADE w/SEA)
• After acquiring a cornerstone piece earlier in Devin White, Elway finds an opportunity to slide back into the late portion of round one to select his next quarterback – all the while securing the coveted fifth-year option contract. Seattle, after landing a Frank Clark replacement, trades out (but take a safety if they stay).
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30. Green Bay Packers: Dalton Risner, OL. Kansas State
• The Pack could stand to upgrade and add depth in multiple areas along the offensive line. Risner is athletic and proportioned well enough to fill a need at 3-4 positions, be it immediately at guard or long-term at tackle.
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31. Los Angeles Rams: Dexter Lawrence, NT. Clemson
• Imposing with brute strength, Lawrence profiles to be an outstanding fit as a central anchor in Wade Phillips’ base 3-4. Packing 340 nimble pounds of bulk, he should help keep Aaron Donald clean.
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32. New England Patriots: Irv Smith Jr., TE. Alabama
• Austin Seferian-Jenkins has some untapped veteran upside, but more is required in the wake of Gronk’s retirement. Irv Smith Jr. is a field-stretcher who can accumulate after the catch. New England has succeeded with multiple tight end options in a variety of profiles.
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