Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.
Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos are headed to Super Bowl 50. Manning threw for two touchdowns but it was the Broncos defense that won the day.
Tom Brady took 23 hits, hadn't taken more than 12 in a game this season (per ESPN Stats & Info). Denver had four sacks and intercepted Brady twice, plus picked off a two-point try with 12 second left to win the game 20-18. New England had a 36 percent chance to win before the two-point attempt.
The Broncos defense needed one stop on a 2-point conversion attempt. They got it. #NEvsDEN #BroncosCountryPlayoffs https://t.co/DJ2NDlT5Et
— NFL (@NFL) January 24, 2016
The Patriots had to go for two because Stephen Gostkowski missed an extra point in the first quarter (snapped a string of 523 straight makes).
Stephen Gostkowski hadn't missed an extra point since 2006. Strange things are afoot: https://t.co/TRwb0Lfpq2 pic.twitter.com/F4AoZSt8ef
— SB Nation (@SBNation) January 24, 2016
The Patriots could have won if…
If you consult Twitter you know that New England could have won the game if they simply kicked a field goal with six minutes to play trailing 20-12 (because the extra three points would have been the difference in a game decided by two). Instead, the Pats went for it on 4th-and-1 and failed to convert.
Broncos defense stops the Patriots on 4 and 1. pic.twitter.com/Kewm8b7oBK
— ?arcusD (@_MarcusD_) January 24, 2016
New England's expected win probability dropped to two percent after failing to convert on fourth down. Had the attempt been successful, the Patriots then would have had a 17 percent chance to win.
If the team had kicked a field goal making the score 20-15, the Patriots would have had an eight percent chance to win. The difference between a successful fourth down conversion and a field goal is double the expected win probability for New England.
Going for it was the right decision, the Denver defense just made another play that helped win the game.
For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.
Carolina rolled in the NFC Championship game whopping the Arizona Cardinals 49-15. Cam Newton threw for two touchdowns and rushed for two more. The defense forced six turnovers and the team got another on special teams. The Panthers are headed back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2003-04.
#KeepPounding pic.twitter.com/31WWNeBeVM
— NFL (@NFL) January 25, 2016
Nothing went right for Arizona in this game especially the first half that saw the team give the ball away three times. Collectively, those three first half turnovers (fumble, fumble and interception) cost the team 19.5 percent in expected win probability.
Of the three, Patrick Peterson's fumble on a punt return might have been the most damning.
Patrick Peterson fumbles the punt return. pic.twitter.com/89emzB895b
— ?arcusD (@_MarcusD_) January 25, 2016
Had Peterson held onto the ball, the Cardinals become 32 percent likely to win trailing by ten points with the ball near midfield.
For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.