Back in September each member of the NFP staff made predictions on what we thought the 2011 season would look like. Now with the season just more than half over, I’m taking a mulligan. I just hope no one made a bet on what I thought the season would look like; they would have wasted a lot of money.
In September, I thought the AFC Division winners would be: East – New England, North – Pittsburgh, South – Indianapolis, West – Kansas City. My AFC Wild Card predictions were the New York Jets and Baltimore. I made these predictions before it was announced that Peyton Manning would have a second surgery and miss the season. I also thought Kansas City would be strong coming off a playoff season last year.
With all teams having played 9 games my thoughts are a little different and here is what I see happening the rest of the season. In the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills started fast but have faded recently; they just don’t have enough top players to finish better than 8-8. The Jets also seem to be fading. While the defense plays well, the offense can’t get on a roll. That leaves the East to the New England Patriots, who are also having a down year and are struggling on defense. The East just isn’t as strong as we thought it was 10 weeks ago.
Andy Dalton has made Cincy fans forget about Carson Palmer.
In the AFC North I’m staying with Pittsburgh as the winner. The team that has disappointed me is Baltimore. While the defense is still outstanding, the player that has had a surprisingly down year is quarterback Joe Flacco. Now that he is an established vet you would think that he would be playing much better. The team from the North that I feel will earn a Wild Card berth is Cincinnati. The Bengals are getting outstanding play from rookie quarterback Andy Dalton.
The Colts without Manning are a totally different team. He has showed how important he is to the team. Instead of being in the playoffs, they are in position to have the first pick in the Draft. Two weeks ago I would have thought that Houston was a lock to win the South, but now with the injury to Matt Schaub it could be a fight down to the wire with Tennessee for the title. At this point of the season I feel both will be in the playoffs with the Texans edging out Tennessee.
The AFC West may be the weakest Division in the NFL this year. Still the most physical team is the Raiders and with Carson Palmer starting to play better they have the best chance to win. San Diego has lost 4 in a row and I doubt they will be able to make a playoff run.
My September NFC picks were East – Eagles, North - Green Bay, South – Atlanta and West – St. Louis. My Wild Card teams were Chicago and New Orleans. Obviously things have changed.
During training camp, I bought into the hype that the Eagles bought themselves a winner...but that’s only on paper. They haven’t played well as a team and now I feel they won’t make the playoffs let alone win the Division. With 7 games left I still think it will go down to the last game before a winner is decided. The Cowboys have a little easier schedule down the stretch and I think that will prove the difference. With their schedule, it’s going to be hard for the Giants to make the playoffs.
Right now Green Bay is the best team in the NFL. If they keep their core players healthy they will win the NFC North. The Bears are playing good football right now, they have won 4 in a row and their next 4 are versus the AFC West. I think they will be one of the Wild Card clubs. Detroit started out strong but are the opposite of the Bears having lost 3 of their last 4. They will be in a fight for a Wild Card berth but may just miss out.
The NFC South looks to be another season-long battle between New Orleans and Atlanta. The Falcons have a 1-game lead to go along with a bit easier schedule down the stretch so I will go with them. I feel Atlanta will contend with Detroit for the final Wild Card berth with the Falcons being the winner.
I don’t think we even have to write about the NFC West. San Francisco has a huge lead that is just about impossible to lose. What the 49ers have to worry about is winning the West so early that they become complacent and not go into the playoffs strong.