In “The Numbers Say” SQ will look at a hot topic in the NFL and dive behind some of the key numbers, both good and bad, that have contributed to the current situation in which a player or team find themselves.

The mood in Carolina was not that great when All-world linebacker Luke Kuechly was knocked out of Week 1 just 32 snaps into the season. In a fantastic twist, the Panthers have actually been playing outstanding with a 4-0 start, and with Atlanta’s loss, now sit in first place in the NFC South.

Perhaps most comforting, is that despite losing arguably the team’s top player, the defense has played well through the first four games of the season.

A crunch of the numbers says that while the Panthers are playing at an elite level, the return of Kuechly cannot come soon enough.

23.2

Of the four teams Carolina has played (Jacksonville, New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Houston) 23.2 represents the average of where the teams rank in points per game. Clearly, the best way to keep the defense in shape while the star player is gone is to play offenses that are not that good to begin with.

24

In the absence of Kuechly the biggest star has been #24 cornerback Josh Norman. The former sixth-round pick from Coastal Carolina is off to an outstanding start, ranked the number one cornerback by Pro Football Focus. Despite Norman’s best efforts, the Panthers have not been stellar against the pass, with the team ranked…

16

Although the Panthers have one of the better defenses in the league, and Norman is one of the better corners in the league, the Panthers currently sit in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending the pass. That number could potentially worsen in the coming weeks because…

4, 4, 3

The Panthers next four games are against Seattle, Philadelphia, Indianapolis and Green Bay. All four finished last season in the Top 10 in points per game. Three of those teams–Seattle, Indianapolis, and Green Bay–had their respective starting quarterbacks finish the Top 10 in QBR.

In fairness, Seattle, Philadelphia, and Indianapolis have not had the win loss records they had last season. Still, the Eagles have won their last two, Andrew Luck appears set to return soon, and two of Seattle’s losses have been to undefeated Green Bay and Cincinnati. All three could be due for a breakout.

84.1.

Although Kuechly has not played a full regular season game, he earned a coverage score of 84.1 which ranks him 6th amongst linebackers. Yes, the sample size is small, but it echoes what many have said about Kuechly being outstanding in coverage.
Against some of the better offenses, and specifically the better passing games, Kuechly’s coverage ability will be critical in the coming weeks.

92.0

For the Panthers concerns with the passing defense, there are very few concerns about the run defense. The unit is surrendering just 92.0 yards per game, good for 6th in the league.

Unsurprisingly, Kuechly is also tremendous against the run. Specifically his tackling and range skills are some of the best in the NFL. In theory, Kuechly’s return should make the Panthers run defense better over this stretch. That will be important because…

2

Two teams (Seattle and Green Bay) have a rushing attack that ranks in the Top 10.
Through four games, the Panthers defense has been exceptional, but it is truly going to be tested with some of the better offenses coming up. The good news is that since Kuechly is so stout against the run and athletic in coverage, the Panthers defense should be able to at least contain some of the better offensive teams coming up. He makes a great run defense elite, and solidifies an already elite pass defense.

In “The Numbers Say”, the SQ will look at a hot topic in the NFL and dive behind some of the key numbers, both good and bad, that have contributed to the current situation in which a player or team find themselves.

When the Philadelphia Eagles got off to a 1-3 start this year, many cited a lack of offensive production from an offense that has been one of the best in the NFL over the last two years. Thankfully, after two impressive wins both of which came by at least 20 points, it looks like the Eagles’ offense is back on track.

A look at the numbers say that, while the Eagles’ offense admittedly struggled, it may have had more to do with the teams they were facing. Combine this with their upcoming schedule and the Philly offense should be high-flying once again.

6, 4

In the first six games, which the Eagles lost three, Philadelphia matched up against three run defenses ranked in the Top 10 of the NFL entering week seven, Dallas, both New York teams and Atlanta. 

80

Predictably, the Eagles’ offense struggled averaging just 80 yards per game over the first four games (Falcons, Jets, Cowboys and Washington) in which the Eagles had just one win. It seems very plausible that when the Eagles, who historically under Chip Kelly have been good at running the ball, go up against teams that are good at stopping the run, the Eagles’ win totals suffer.

20, 30

Not all of the credit in the Eagles’ losses should go towards the opposing defenses. When the Eagles could not run the ball, they were quite quick to abandon it, never having more than 20 rushing attempts in any of their losses. Whereas in the three games the Eagles won, they stuck with the run longer, rushing the ball 30 times or more.

170.5

In the last two games, which have resulted in two wins, the Eagles have averaged 170.5 yards a game. Not surprisingly, when the Eagles are able to put up impressive numbers running the ball, they win by impressive scores.

11, 1

Perhaps a more overlooked factor, when it comes to the Eagles’ success running the ball, is how it has created balance for the entire offense. When the Eagles win in 2015, the difference between rushing attempts and drop-backs by a quarterback is within 11. In last week’s victory over the Giants, a game which the Eagles won by 20, the difference of rushing attempts to drop backs was just one.

9, 2, 3

Balance is important since the Eagles cannot rely on its passing game because of the interceptions thrown by Sam Bradford. So far this season, Bradford has the second highest total in the league. Additionally, when Bradford does throw his interceptions, he throws them in bunches. He currently has three multi-interception games. It should be noted that one of those games was last week against the Giants. So Bradford’s interception do not exactly spell defeat for the Eagles, but Bradford’s turnover tendencies show why the Eagles have to rely on the run game.

2

Further proof that the Eagles’ offense should kick into gear in the second half of the season. Of the Eagles’ remaining games, just two teams, Dallas and Buffalo, enter the seventh week of the season ranked in the Top 10 in run defense. One of those Top 10 run defense is actually the Eagles.

With a potentially easier schedule in terms of run defense and the Eagles’ ability to compliment that rushing attack with a balanced passing game, the points should once again be easy to come by in Philadelphia.

On Wednesday, Kevin Clark of the Wall Street Journal published an article entitled, “Why the NFL has a quarterback crisis.”

The article, a great read, goes on to say that it is becoming harder and harder to find quarterbacks from the college level who can immediately join the NFL and eventually develop into top level talent.

The bulk of the article claims that as college offenses drift away stylistically from NFL offenses, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find the next elite level quarterback.

Headline grabbing aside, this “crisis” the NFL currently finds itself in isn’t necessarily a new one, and it is less of a crisis and more of a long-term dilemma.

Before continuing, it is important to note that, yes, college offenses are drifting further and further away from NFL norms. Whether it be with tempo like Baylor, with misdirection like Auburn, or with an option-base like Georgia Tech, what is seen on Saturday is likely to be substantially different from Sunday. Misdirection and option-football are not new to college football and certainly not new for talent scouts.

In general, it is very hard to make it to the NFL. Most teams only retain about 50% of their draft class over the long term. The number looks even gloomier if one were to analyze which of those draft picks actually become “good” players. The fact that only one quarterback starts at a time cuts the opportunity even more so.

Finding good players for the NFL has never been an easy process and it likely never will be.  Also, consider how long it has taken to reach this point. Currently, the oldest starting quarterback, based on year drafted, is Peyton Manning, drafted in 1998.

It has taken 17 years to find 10-12 starting quarterbacks who are play at an “elite” level. Now consider how many failed quarterbacks have taken snaps in that span. Even simpler, consider how many quarterbacks have entered the league since Andrew Luck, arguably the newest “elite” passer, was drafted in 2012.

It’s easy to see that if the NFL does indeed have a quarterback crisis, it has been happening for a long time

As for the future, the NFL does have a small inkling of a problem. In large part, the “new wave” college offense is based on simplicity. Since the flexibility of a college football roster pales in comparison to a pro roster, college coaches need to find simpler methods for teaching the team and making them competitive.

Meanwhile the NFL game is all about details. For instance, Chris B. Brown documents how Peyton Manning loves to run a pass concept called levels. Brown shows how Manning and his coaches have manipulated that levels play every which way in his career, to adjust to the defense and adjust what the defense must prepare for. Details.

An adjustment for Baylor might be as simple as the same exact play that was previously run, where basically the quarterback is just keying on one defender, but with a different formation. Or a different side of the field a play will be run on.

Based on this comparison, it is easy to see why NFL teams would be frustrated with the current crop of passers who do very little of what is required, mentally, of top tier NFL quarterbacks.

Clark quotes Browns General Manager Ray Farmer who talks about potentially using quarterback-like running backs as package players. This could be a solution, and there is probably a way where coaches can eventually scheme to use this strategy.

NFL teams have already begun to adapt college schemes to pros. Several teams, most notably the Patriots, have adopted the idea of no-huddle as a staple of their offense. Meanwhile, Chip Kelly has brought a spread based rushing attack, much like the ones used in college. It isn’t too hard to remember when the read-option and pistol formation were implemented by the 49ers.

So while those around the game may lament how they can’t find a typical NFL quarterback, they already have begun to implement current staples of the college game into the pro game. How much of that is to actually ease the transition for their respective young quarterback and how much is because the coaches view it as a strategic advantage is unknown. It is probably some factor of both.

This doesn’t mean that an NFL team can just take any college quarterback and ease them into being a quality starting quarterback. Much of the same general evaluations regarding decision making, arm strength, accuracy, decision making etc. still very much apply to figuring out which college passers can be NFL quality players.

It is understandable that the typical NFL quarterback which has boomed in the 21st century seems to be phased out at the younger level. But at the same time, the NFL has already shown that it can develop it’s game around it’s younger players by implementing components of the college game, while they pick up on the more advanced components of the NFL game.

Figuring out which NFL Draft pick will provide even minimal return is hard. Picking which players will live up to, or even exceed, expectations is even more difficult. Predicting who will do so in their rookie season is nearly impossible.

Despite these overwhelming odds, by the time the season is over, Seattle Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett
will be a household name. In terms of talent, he was known in college for his ability to go deep. It happened at least once a game, usually more frequently.

Overall, Lockett, standing at 5’11”, spent his collegiate career using his agility and speed to shred defense. The receiver made a name for himself being just as explosive with the ball in his hands. He was also extremely versatile, having spent a portion of his time in college returning punts, a skill he has already displayed at the NFL level.

The knocks on Lockett are his small size, though there are dozens of 5’11” receivers who have had successful NFL careers, and his small hands, which can lead to some drops. The latter is a bit concerning considering most rookies have more to prove than veterans. However, Lockett will still be successful due to the team that drafted him. It is safe to say that, both in long and short term, he found a great home in Seattle.

Despite having not yet played in a regular season game, the young receiver has already made a solid NFL highlight reel with two kick returns and a receiving touchdown in his four pre-season games.

Returning punts provides an easy way to showcase his ability with the ball in his hands.

Still, as great as specialists are, it is what Locket will do as a receiver that will really make him a breakout player.

The big newcomer for the Seahawks offense is Jimmy Graham, and believing he isn’t the featured target in the passing attack would be foolish, for now.

Beyond Graham, there is certainly some room for speculation about the overall talent of the receiving corp. Seattle’s receivers in the Russell Wilson era could be dubbed as functional but not elite. Doug Baldwin has been pretty consistent but probably isn’t an upper-echelon receiver.

Behind Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse caught one touchdown last season. Arguably, Ricardo Lockette’s most famous play involved going flying backwards as Malcolm Brown came running from the back of the endzone to pick off Wilson and secure a Patriots victory.
In short, the Seahawks lack the talented veterans at receiver to keep Lockett from rising up the ranks.

As of Tuesday, Lockett was behind Kearse on the depth chart.

If Lockett does not begin the year as the top receiver on the depth chart, which seems likely, he will still be featured predominately lining up in the three or four receiver sets.

By using him in the slot, Lockett won’t have a size match against linebackers and safeties who figure to be around 6’0.” Still, his quickness should allow him to create separation on short routes, and his speed will make for an easy match-up win should the Seahawks look to exploit the deep middle of the field.

Additionally, Lockett spent some time lined up on the outside and caught his preseason pass on a streak where he simply burned the receiver. Seattle knows their new receiver has speed and are more than happy to use it.

Lockett has already proven his chops as an electrifying returner, which has gotten him some notoriety. If he can continue to shine as a kick returner and continue to rise up the Seahawks depth chart as a receiver, Tyler Lockett should be a recognizable name by years end.

Top Teir

The defensive back entering the season with the most draft hype is probably Florida State’s Jalen Ramsey, and the praise is warranted. It is difficult to find a player whose game is as complete as Ramsey’s. He spent time at safety after spending a year at corner, but safety is probably the best fit for him.  

His experience as a corner is evident as his coverage and ball skills are phenomenal. Although he is not the type of player to come sprinting down from the secondary and burst through the line to make a tackle for loss, he is a good blitzer and would not be considered a liability against the run.

Two years ago, Virginia Tech corner-back Kyle Fuller was a first round pick of the Chicago Bears. In 2015, his younger brother Kendall looks to do the same. Like the elder Fuller, Kendall shows the raw fluidity that should make him good in man-to-man coverage. He’s also more comfortable in zone than his older brother, and his ball skills look pretty good for the position. Not to mention he does a surprisingly good job against the run, despite not being a bigger corner.

LSU’s Tre’Davious White is another corner with first round ability. White was honored with the #18 Jersey, traditionally given to the player who exemplifies leadership on and off the field. As a player, White looks to continue in the long line of cover corners to come out of “DBU.” In man-to-man coverage, White is extremely agile and shows great recovery if beaten initially. One area of his game that needs to improve is his ability against the run, although he is a solid tackler.

Along with Ramsey, another play-making safety is Kentucky’s AJ Stamps. Stamps is a very, very aggressive player which can lead to some big hits, but also some big misses. Still, the positive plays usually outweigh the negative ones. In coverage, Stamps has great awareness and excellent ball skills when he can see the play develop in front of him. In the run game, he can lay out some big hits but is prone to missing the ball carrier at times when he aims to make a big hit over the sure tackle.

Another name to look out for is Vonn Bell S, Ohio State.

Mid Round and Sleeper

Many see Florida’s Vernon Hargraves as a first round pick, and there is good reason to. He is extremely physical and is probably one of the best run-defending corners in this class. Hargraves also has good hips and looks like he has some strong tools to be a good cover corner. However, some parts of his game, like his back pedal, and some of his ball skills prevent him from being considered a potential first-round pick.

Another defensive back who is on the cusp of being a top tier talent is Duke’s Jeremy Cash. The Blue Devils safety excels near the line of scrimmage and when dealing with ball carriers. He makes some very good plays in the run game and can force the occasional fumble. In coverage, Cash looks okay, but he can be a real weapon if used near the line of scrimmage.

Mississippi State’s Taveze Calhoun excels in zone coverage. His football instincts are great, he has solid ball skills, and he is also a good run defender. Calhoun is not the kind of loose, quick-twitch athlete that will be elite in man-to-man coverage, and he lacks the long speed to make up for mistakes if a receiver gets past him initially.

West Virginia safety Karl Joseph had the opportunity to come out for the 2014 draft as he was already considered one of the top prospects at the position last year. Joseph is a versatile player who can play in the box and be a quality run defender. In pass coverage, he has good range and does a good job at closing in on passes to either disrupt the pass or stop the receiver from gaining additional yardage.

Other players to watch include: Jalen Mills’ S, LSU; Rashard Robinson CB, LSU; Leon McQuay S, USC; Zack Sanchez CB, Oklahoma; William Jackson CB, Houston; Orion Stewart S, Baylor.

Best of the Rest

Calhoun’s teammate at Mississippi State, Will Redmond, may not be as highly regarded but still looks to have a bright NFL future. Redmond is an extremely raw player with great hip fluidity, but he lacks many of the technical skills for the position.

Perhaps one of the more intriguing prospects in this group of defensive backs is Louisville safety Josh Harvey-Clemons. The Cardinal defender is listed at 6’5 230 pounds, as a safety, after playing a hybrid role at his previous school, Georgia. Clemons has a leg up on his other safeties in terms of pure size and ability against the run but might be a tick behind everyone else as far as pass coverage. Like Shaq Thompson from a year ago, NFL teams will have to put careful thought in how Clemons, at his size, will be deployed at the next level.

Other names to look out for include: Avery Sebastian S, Notre Dame; Tyvis Powell S, Ohio State; Sua Cravens S, USC; Tracy Howard CB, Miami; Eli Apple CB, Ohio State; Kevon Seymour CB, USC; Tony Conner S, Ole Miss; Max Redfied S, Notre Dame; Trevon Stewart S, Houston.

Chicago Bears (5-11 in 2014, 4th in NFC North)

How will new offensive coordinator Adam Gase handle the Bears’ offense?

In Denver, Gase had a ton of success, leading the Broncos to top-five finishes in yards per game in both his seasons. Skeptics will say that much of Gase’s success has to do with having Peyton Manning along with an extremely talented and deep group of receivers.

Working with the Broncos, Gase loved to throw the football and worked almost exclusively out of three wide receiver sets, seldom putting in heavier blocking packages for run plays. Not to say the Broncos didn’t run the ball, but it was an offense clearly designed to play to the obvious talent in the passing game.

With the Bears, the bigger intrigue might not be how Gase brings in the passing attack, but how he uses Matt Forte and the running game. In his two seasons as Broncos offensive coordinator, Gase never had the kind of feature back the Bears have had in Forte.

Who will emerge as a defensive playmaker for the Bears?

Looking at the numbers for the team, the Bears defense was awful a year ago. Looking at the individual numbers, the Bears were not entirely devoid of playmakers, but there are lots of questions entering this season.

The Bears will rely heavily on veterans Jared Allen and Antrel Rolle, but both players are well into their thirties and their effectiveness will certainly be in question. On the flip side, rookies like Eddie Goldman and second year corner Kyle Fuller have talent, but still could face a learning curve early in their pro careers.

Meanwhile, Lamar Houston and Willie Young are both coming off torn ACL and torn Achilles, respectively.

2015 Prediction 6-10, 4th in NFC North

Detroit Lions (11-5 in 2014, 2nd in NFC North)

Who are the playmakers not named Matthew Stafford
or Calvin Johnson?

As great as the Stafford-to-Johnson connection has been, both have seen regressions in their game. Johnson missed some time with an ankle injury last year while Stafford has seen his passing yard totals steadily decrease over the last few seasons.

Detroit is hoping that 2014 first round pick Eric Ebron lives up to his top-ten selection. Meanwhile the Lions rush attack was horrific and Joique Bell was underwhelming last year. Hopefully rookie Ameer Abdullah will provide some spark to the Lions rushing game.

What’s life without Suh?

The Lions opted to let Ndamukong Suh, the most dominant defensive tackle in the league for the last several years, go to Miami. In his place is former Raven Haloti Ngata, a talented tackle in his own right. However, Suh was a force on both runs and pass that he opened things up for many other players.

Aside from Ngata, the Lions will rely heavily on Ziggy Ansah, who will likely draw much more attention from teams in Suh’s absence. Added pressure will also likely be placed on the linebacking corps as Suh often commanded double teams allowing the linebackers an easier time taking on ball carriers.

2015 Prediction 9-7, 3rd in NFC North

Green Bay Packers (12-4 in 2014, 1st in NFC North)

Can the offense keep up its excellence?

The biggest move the Packers made this offseason to address the offense was spending a draft pick on receiver Ty Montgomery. As lame as it sounds, there is so little to question about the Packers offense it is almost unfair. Maybe if Randall Cobb had left there would be some some issue with receiver depth, but that is not the case. As long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy, the Packer offense should be exceptional once again.

What’s going on with the back seven?

Ted Thompson used three of his five selections on a linebacker or a defensive back in April. At linebacker, Clay Matthews is the only impact player, although Julius Peppers might provide some sort of a pass rush. Late round rookie Jake Ryan could see some playing time, but the Packers are still very thin at linebacker.

In the secondary, rookies Quinton Rollins and Demarious Randall figure to see significant playing time after the Packers lost two starters in Tramon Williams and Davon House to free agency. Safeties Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
should still be solid as the Packers’ starting safeties.

2015 Prediction: 13-3, 1st in NFC North

Minnesota Vikings (7-9 in 2014, 3rd in NFC North)

How good can the Viking offense be this year?

At last the VIkings have found their quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, who arguably had the best season amongst rookie passers despite having no Adrian Peterson, his best receiver being a declining Greg Jennings and an offensive line that surrendered 41 sacks. 

The offensive line hasn’t really been addressed but Adrian Peterson is back and Jennings is gone in favor of Mike Wallace, thus likely spelling improvement for Bridgewater and the rest of the Viking offense.

Will defensive newcomers make the defense an elite unit?

The Vikings spent their first three draft picks on defensive players to upgrade each of the three layers of defense. Trae Waynes for the secondary, Eric Kendricks for the linebackers and Danielle Hunter for the defensive line. All three should see the field pretty early.

Last year the Vikings defense was actually pretty solid, ranking in the top-15 in several statistical categories all while getting some good play out of their defensive line. If the newcomers can perform at a high level, the defense could make the Vikings a playoff contender.

2015 Prediction: 9-7, 2nd in NFC North

Top Tier

For a team looking for a pass rushing outside linebacker, one of the first names to come up will likely be Georgia’s Leonard Floyd. At 230 pounds, Floyd is fairly stout against the run and can generate a bit of a bull rush. His real strength is using his great first step, torso flexibility, and swim move to reach the quarterback.  Don’t mistake Floyd’s pass rush ability as his only quality skill. Although Floyd is not as accomplished as a coverage linebacker, he still shows good range and good instincts for finding the ball carrier. If Floyd does have a clear weakness it is in pass coverage, where he lacks good fluidity and doesn’t look comfortable when dropping back.

The counterpart to Floyd is Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith. Unlike Floyd, Smith’s strength is not rushing the passer; in fact it is probably the worst part of his game. On the flip side, the rest of his game is outstanding. Smith is one of the most instinctive linebackers in this group. Additionally, Smith is a top tier athlete whose movement skills and strength make him arguably the top non-pass rushing linebacker in this group.

Scooby Wright will probably be the most decorated defensive player once the 2015 season concludes. The Arizona Wildcat defender is one of the most active players in the game and shows great instincts for dealing with the pass and the run. He probably could play defensive end with his strength and athleticism, a combination which produced 29 tackles for loss in 2014. The big issue with Wright’s game is his tackling, as he frequently will whiff on the ball carrier, turning a good play for the defense into a big play for the offense. Also, Wright is not as rangy as some other linebackers in this group, but is adequate in chasing outside runs or dropping into coverage.

Other names to watch out for include: Myles Jack: OLB, UCLA and Dadi Nicholas: OLB, Virginia Tech.

Mid Round & Sleepers

If a team needs a throwback (middle linebacker) who can come down to the line of scrimmage and plug up run holes, they should look at Alabama’s Reggie Ragland. The Crimson Tide linebacker isn’t as small and light as others at his position-which can make him a bit of a liability in space. However, he is great in tight quarters, using his strength to engage bigger blockers and then disengage to make tackles for loss. Ragland also scores points for versatility, lining up on the defensive line at times and being a frequent contributor on special teams.

Oklahoma’s Eric Striker could be one of the most decorated linebackers in the country. Unfortunately, Striker will likely be a much better college player than pro. Part of this is due to his size, weighing in at a shade under 230 pounds, below average bulk. His versatility is also in question, as he projects likely as an outside linebacker in a 4-3. Still, Striker is a pretty rangy player despite his size and looks to be a pretty solid pass rusher. His instincts for the position need work.

A player who, while currently a relative unknown, could be a first round pick by season’s end is Rutgers outside linebacker Kemoko Turay. At 6’6” 240, Turay has a great frame, with perhaps the ability to add some weight and play full time defensive end. Although Turay spent most of his time playing on third downs in 2014, he did begin to see more snaps as the season progressed. The reason he mainly played on third down is because his pass rush skills are developing but, with some refinement, could be the best in the draft. With that said, Turay is extremely raw as a linebacker struggling to play the run and seldom dropping back in passing situations.

Other names to watch include, Devonte Fields: OLB, Louisville, Kyler Fackrell: OLB, Utah State, Joshua Perry: ILB, Ohio State, Daron Lee: OLB, Ohio State

Best of the Rest

Auburn linebacker Cassanova McKinzy will likely be an inside linebacker at the next level.  McKinzy looks to be pretty stout at 6’3” 253 pounds, and he can take on bigger offensive lineman with ease. He appears to know his assignments a bit better on passing plays than on running plays. McKinzy is not very rangy or very good at rushing the passer, but he is formidable against the run and a good tackler.

Striker’s teammate at Oklahoma, Dominique Alexander, is another NFL linebacker hopeful. Alexander appears to be a more traditional inside linebacker who does a good job at locating and flowing to the ball. He is a good tackler, despite his 6’0 220 pound frame, and shows a good amount of range. Like Striker, Alexander is undersized for the position, and it really shows when he has to engage with bigger blockers, lacking the strength to hold his ground when teams run in his direction.

Other players to watch are: Tyrik McCord: OLB, Miami, CJ Johnson: OLB, Ole Miss, Antonio Morrison: ILB, Florida, Kris Frost: ILB, Auburn, Ifeadi Odenigbo: OLB, Northwestern, and Kentrell Brothers: ILB, Missouri.

Top Tier

Ohio State’s Joey Bosa is the favorite to be the first overall pick in the 2016 draft and is already receiving JJ Watt comparisons. The Buckeye end is one of the best lineman in the country as a result of his great athletic ability and even greater refinement of his game. When rushing the passer, he displays good swim, rip and spin moves to keep tackles off-balance. As a run defender, Bosa is stout and can shed offensive lineman to take on ball carriers.

Like Bosa, Oklahoma State’s Emmanuel Ogbah is an extremely refined player. He is not the athlete Bosa is, but Ogbah does all the little things right. Against the run, he is stout and Oklahoma State has used him at nose tackle on a few occasions even though he is listed as an end. Ogbah has a good motor and can effectively dip around blockers to reach the quarterback.

Robert Nkemdiche came to Ole Miss with high expectations, after being ranked as the number one high school senior in the country. The statistical results have been mixed, but Nkemdiche will likely be a top-15 selection if he keeps up his current rate of play. At 293 pounds, Nkemdiche plays tackle even though his speed is that of a much smaller player. He is also incredibly strong with a great bull rush. The only concern with Nkemdiche is his technique against the run, in which he won’t square his shoulders to the line of scrimmage, making it easy for offensive lineman to move him.

The top nose tackle in the 2016 draft figures to be Alabama tackle A’Shawn Robinson. Robinson’s game is all about stopping the run. He is built enough to hold a double team, while also showing enough agility to disengage and take down the ball carrier. As with most bigger tackles, endurance is a bit of a concern, and Robinson is not nearly as good against the pass as he is against the run.

Other players to watch include: Shawn Oakman: DE, Baylor, Montavius Adams: DT, Auburn, Deforest Buckner: DE, Oregon, Jordan Jenkins: DE, Georgia.

Mid-Round and Sleepers

Penn State end Anthony Zettel made off-season headlines when he sacked a tree on video. Zettel is extremely quick with excellent snap anticipation, allowing him to shoot the gap between offensive linemen. Zettel also has an excellent motor. He is solid in the run game, but he can struggle when teams run directly at him.

Even though Baylor has historically been known for its offense, it could have two defenders drafted early in 2016 with Oakman and tackle Andrew Billings. If Billings shows the ability to finish plays more often, his stock could go through the roof. He displays good strength and quickness in both the run and pass game.

Other names include: Shilique Calhoun: DE, Michigan State, Darius Hamilton: DE, Rutgers, Sheldon Day: DT, Notre Dame.

Best of the Rest

Nebraska nose tackle Vincent Valentine will be an interesting prospect going forward. At the moment, Valentine is much better against the run where he uses his size and quickness to be a disruptive force. He has little value against the pass, not yet having shown the ability to translate his size into a good bull-rush.

Valentine’s teammate, tackle Maliek Collins, is the complete opposite. Collins game is all about using speed and quickness to shoot the gap on running plays, and he shows more skill as a pass rusher. However, Collins is not nearly as successful against the run.

Oklahoma’s Charles Tapper looks like a solid two-down run stuffer at the NFL level. For a defensive end, he is incredibly stout and even shows the ability to be double-teamed but not concede any ground to blockers. He looks okay as a pass rusher but is not the type of player who will win based on speed.

Bronson Kaufusi from BYU is one of the more versatile players in the group, having spent most of his career at outside linebacker. As a pass rusher, Kaufusi has a good swim move to get past offensive lineman but does not have great speed or first step to make much of an impact aside from his swim. He looks solid as a run defender but appears better sui
ted to rush the passer than take on running backs.

Other players to watch: Jonathan Bullard: DE, Florida, Drew Ott: DE, Iowa, Adolphus Washington: DT, Ohio State, Luther Maddy: DT, Virginia Tech.