2011 NFL Draft: The Year of the Superstar

Not all draft classes are created equal. The 2011 NFL Draft is a perfect example of this, as it was one of the best in recent history, loaded with players who have gone on to become stars in the NFL.
Starting with the top 10 selections, an astonishing eight players have been selected to a Pro Bowl and have risen to the top of their respective positions.
With the first overall selection, Carolina took the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, quarterback Cam Newton. By no means is Newton the best quarterback in the league, but he is a rising star and the Panthers recently rewarded him with a contract extension that makes him the third highest-paid quarterback in the NFL.
Denver selected next and took Von Miller, who is one of the league’s most productive pass rushers. In his first four seasons, he has recorded 49 sacks, despite missing eight games––which is half of a season.
Marcell Dareus may not receive the publicity that other defensive tackles get––probably because he plays in Buffalo––but he is one of the few elite interior defensive lineman in the league, productive as a pass rusher (10 sacks in 2014) and as a run stuffer.
In Cincinnati, wide receiver A.J. Green has put together four seasons with more than 1,000 yards, including seasons of 97 and 98 receptions, while catching passes from a quarterback who is the definition of inconsistent.
Things don’t slow down at the fifth pick, as Patrick Peterson is considered by many to be one of the rare shutdown cornerbacks and has been an electric punt returner when given the opportunity (four touchdowns as a rookie, including a 99-yard return).
When Atlanta traded up to number six for Julio Jones, they were expecting a game changing wide receiver and they received exactly that. In 2014, he hauled in 104 passes.
Aldon Smith has run into trouble off of the field in San Francisco, but on the field, he has been a force, recording 44 sacks––including an amazing 19 as a rookie.
The first miss of the draft came eight selections in, as Tennessee missed on quarterback Jake Locker. Jacksonville did the same at number 10 with Blaine Gabbert and Minnesota followed the trend with Christian Ponder at 12. Unless your favorite team selected a quarterback in the first round of 2012, odds are they hit on their pick.
After one season at right tackle, Tyron Smith, the ninth overall selection, has locked down the Cowboys’ left tackle position and anchors the best offensive line in football.
Of course, no discussion of the 2011 draft would be complete without the player Houston took at number 11, a certain Justin James Watt. All J.J. Watt has done is become the best player in football.
Teams didn’t have any trouble finding talent after Watt, as Nick Fairley, Robert Quinn, Mike Pouncey, Ryan Kerrigan, Nate Solder, Corey Liuget and Prince Amukamara went in order. All seven of these players are essential pieces on their respective teams.
The talent started to thin out a bit after the top 20 picks, but Anthony Castonzo (22), Cameron Jordan (24), Jimmy Smith (27), Muhammad Wilkerson (30) and Cameron Heyward (31) are all top players at their positions.
In the second round, teams had much more success at the quarterback position with Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick. Neither is without their flaws, but they have led their teams to multiple playoff appearances.
The second highest-paid center in the NFL, Rodney Hudson, went at number 55 to Kansas City and Green Bay took the NFL’s best slot receiver at number 64 in Randall Cobb.
Back-to-back selections in the early third round, numbers 70 and 71, saw the 2014 sacks leader (Justin Houston) and rushing leader (DeMarco Murray) go off the board.
A few picks later, Tennessee found the anchor of their defensive in Jurrell Casey at number 77.
The fourth round was the place to go for a tight end, with Jordan Cameron (102) and Julius Thomas (129) having made a combined three Pro Bowls in the last two seasons.
Fullbacks are a dying breed in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean the 2011 draft didn’t have contribute at that position. Anthony Sherman, Pro Football Focus’ best fullback in 2013 and 2014, went at number 136 to Arizona. (He really hit his stride after being traded to Kansas City before the 2013 season.) In the seventh round, pick number 211, San Francisco selected Bruce Miller, who finished third and fifth in the same rankings.
Gold was struck on three consecutive selections in the sixth round (172-174). Minnesota started things off by taking Slippery Rock’s finest, Brandon Fusco. Seattle followed with Byron Maxwell (more on the Seahawks later) and Miami finished with Charles Clay. That is three above-average starters in the sixth round on consecutive picks.
The sixth round wasn’t done though, with Philadelphia finding a high-level center in Jason Kelce at pick number 191.
All the seventh round did was produce a Super Bowl MVP for Seattle.
On to Seattle, the team has had so much success drafting in the late rounds, a whole paragraph needs dedicated to the team. The first two days of the draft didn’t produce much to speak of for Seattle, but day three sure did. The day started well, with fourth-round pick K.J. Wright (99). The jewel of the draft was Richard Sherman (154), who is a top two cornerback. (Some people prefer Darrelle Revis, others prefer Sherman.) As already mentioned, Byron Maxwell went in the sixth round. Teams will take any contribution from a seventh round pick, but Malcolm Smith exceeded all expectations, earning MVP honors for Super Bowl XLVIII. The 2011 made major contributions to Seattle’s suffocating defense.
As everyone knows, once the last selection is made, the draft isn’t over. In undrafted free agency, multiple quality players were found including Dan Bailey, Chris Harris Jr., Henry Hynoski and Doug Baldwin. Bailey (kicker), Harris Jr. (cornerback) and Hynoski (fullback) are all in the upper echelon of their positions and Baldwin has been the Seahawks’ most consistent receiver since 2011.
Not every player discussed here is a superstar, as the title of this article would suggest, but they are all quality players produced by an extremely talented draft class––one that will go down in history. In addition, there are a number of talented players that weren’t mentioned in this article.
Simply put, the 2011 draft class was one for the ages and the scary part is that these players are just four years into their careers.

Matt Pearce is a graduate of National Football Post’s Introduction to Scouting and Scouting Boot Camp and is a journalism student at the University of Nebraska. Follow him on Twitter @Matt_Pearce13

Broncos Have an Offensive Line Problem

The offensive line of the Denver Broncos had question marks entering Organized Team Activities (OTAs)––and that was before starting left tackle Ryan Clady was lost for the season with a torn ACL.
By no means is the 28-year old Clady a top-tier left tackle like he was a few years ago, but he was an essential piece in the puzzle that the Broncos’ offensive line has become.
Earlier in the offseason, the team lost three of their top five offensive lineman from 2014, in terms of total snaps, in Manuel Ramirez (trade, Detroit), Orlando Franklin (free agency, San Diego) and Will Montgomery (free agency, Chicago). Throw in the loss of Clady, and the Broncos will be starting at least four new lineman in week one against Baltimore.
The 2014 offensive line wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire, as Denver started to utilize formations with six offensive linemen to protect quarterback Peyton Manning and better run the football. From week 12 through the Broncos exit in the playoffs (eight games), the team averaged 13 plays per game with six offensive lineman.
The 2014 offensive line was more talented than what the 2015 version projects to be. Currently, the Denver offensive line projects as this:
Left Tackle: Ryan Harris
Left Guard: Shelley Smith
Center: Gino Gradkowski
Right Guard: Louis Vasquez
Right Tackle: Chris Clark
Not exactly confidence inspiring.
Only Vasquez has consistently been a starter at the NFL level, while the other four have spent almost as much time on the bench as on the field.
Pro Football Focus has been taking an in depth look at depth charts around the league and the Denver offensive line didn’t look good. Harris and Smith graded as below average; Gradkowski, poor, Vasquez, high quality, and Clark average. (The grading scale is elite, high quality, good, average, below average and poor.)
Sitting behind these five players are two rookies and a second-year pro. Head coach Gary Kubiak has to be hoping for at least one of these players to step up.
Second-round pick Ty Sambrailo could challenge for the starting left tackle position, and the same goes for fourth-round pick Max Garcia at center. Michael Schofield, a third round selection in 2014, will likely backup Clark at right tackle.
Kubiak, in his first year in Denver, brings his well-known zone-blocking scheme with him. This will help the weak Broncos’ line, but the impact won’t be felt as much in the passing game.
Part of these problems in pass protection will be alleviated by Manning. He is known for his quick release and has the fastest time to throw in each of the last two seasons (2.24 and 2.36 seconds in 2014 and 2013, respectively).
Manning can only do so much to help himself when passing the ball though. He is one of the least mobile quarterbacks in the NFL and, at the age of 39, his performance may start to regress.
A 39-year old, immobile quarterback behind a weak offensive line is not a recipe for success. Manning is a rhythm passer and if he doesn’t have time to throw the ball, the Denver offense won’t be going anywhere this season.
Matt Pearce is a graduate of National Football Post’s Introduction to Scouting and Scouting Boot Camp and is a journalism student at the University of Nebraska. Follow him on Twitter@Matt_Pearce13

All-Free Agent Team (Special Teams)

Technically speaking, unrestricted free agency is over for the 2015 offseason and has been for more than a week.
On May 12, all free agents became street free agents, compared to previous years when it was June 1. After this date, all free agent signings don’t count against compensatory draft picks in the following draft, hence the reclassification of the players.
With this in mind, there are still some players on the market who could help your favorite team reach the playoffs in the 2015 season. As teams suffer injuries in minicamps and other team activities, expect to see these free agents sign with teams.
Earlier, I posted the best offensive and defensive free agents. Rich Eisen taught us that punters are people too, so we can’t forget about special teams players!
Kicker: Shayne Graham
An All-Pro kicker in 2005, Graham is no longer one of the best in the NFL, but he held down the kicking job for the New Orleans Saints last season. Attempting 22 field goals, he made 19––a field goal percentage of 86.4. The 37-year old was perfect inside of 40 yards and his three misses came from 41, 42 and 51 yards out. The free agent kicker market is bare and Graham is the best of the bunch.
Punter: Mat McBriar
If the kicker market is bare, then the punter market is empty. McBriar is the only punter on the market with a regular season punt, according to Spotrac’s free agent list. Australian born, the 35-year old has been a mid-season replacement for Pittsburgh and San Diego the last two seasons. In three games for the Chargers in 2014, he averaged 46.9 yards per punt, but had net average of only 35.4 yards. While his average would have been the fourth best in the league, his net average would have ranked dead last if he had enough punts to qualify.
Long Snapper: Christian Yount
Recently waived by the Browns, Yount has plenty of experience at long snapper. Yount, 26 years old, joined the Browns in the middle of the the 2011 season and held down their long snapper position since then. He spent 53 games in Cleveland as their long snapper, giving teams plenty of tape to analyze his snaps.
Return Specialist: Josh Cribbs
A two-time All-Pro and three-time Pro Bowler, Cribbs is one of the most decorated return specialists in recent history. After eight seasons in Cleveland, Cribbs, soon to be 32 years old, spent 2013 in New York with the Jets. His kick return average of 24.5 yards was 12th best in the league. Playing for the Colts in 2014, he averaged 32 yards per kick return and 6.6 yards per punt return. Just one kick return shy of qualifying, his average would have led the league. Cribbs is no longer the speedster he used to be, but he is still a savvy returner.
Special Teamer: Jarrett Bush
A core special teams player for the Packers since joining the team in 2006, Bush has racked up plenty of special teams tackles over the years. Since 2007 (when Pro Football Focus started tracking), he has 75 special teams tackles. There is no cumulative tackle rankings, but the 31-year old Bush is sure to be high on that list.
Matt Pearce is a graduate of National Football Post’s Introduction to Scouting and Scouting Boot Camp and is a journalism student at the University of Nebraska. Follow him on Twitter @Matt_Pearce13

Potential Hard Knocks Storylines

The 10th edition of HBO’s Hard Knocks has been announced for the 2015 season and the cameras will be following the Houston Texans during training camp.
This is the first time that the Texans will appear on the television series. (Only Dallas and Cincinnati have appeared twice.)
While the series focuses on the team as a whole, every year there are certain storylines, players and coaches that play essential roles. Who could fill that role in 2015?
J.J. Watt
The most dominant player in football right now, Watt is likely one of the main reasons the Texans are on the show. Even if you aren’t a Houston fan, you have to appreciate what he is doing. His devotion to the game is well known and now everyone will get an inside look at how he prepares for the season. There is no doubt that Watt will be one of the stars of Hard Knocks this year.
Quarterback Competition: Brian Hoyer vs. Ryan Mallett
Despite an unsettled quarterback position, the Texans were able to finish the 2014 season with a 9-7 record, just missing the playoffs. This year, there will be another battle for the quarterback spot, this time between Hoyer and Mallett. Hoyer joins Houston from Cleveland, where he had the Browns playing relevant football again. Mallett re-signed with the Texans after starting two games last season before tearing a pectoral muscle, sidelining him for the season. Will the veteran Hoyer or the strong-armed Mallett line up under center for Houston next season?
The Return of Jadeveon Clowney
The number one overall selection of the 2014 NFL Draft, Clowney was one of the best defensive prospects to enter in the NFL in recent years. However, his rookie year didn’t go as planned. He suffered a knee injury in week one and then returned to play in weeks eight, 11 and 12 before being shut down for the year. In early December, he underwent microfracture surgery on his right knee. Microfracture surgery is known not only for long rehab times, but a lot of players never return to the same level. How will Clowney recover from this surgery? Hard Knocks should give us an inside look.
Bill O’Brien
Head coaches play an essential role in Hard Knocks for obvious reasons. O’Brien is entering his second season as the head coach of the Texans. Despite very little contribution from his rookies and playing four quarterbacks, O’Brien reversed the Texans’ fortunes last season, turning them into a 9-7 squad, just a year removed from going 2-14. Coming from the Bill Belichick coaching tree, O’Brien probably isn’t thrilled to be featured on Hard Knocks. In spite of this, he is going to be a key person in the television series.
Arian Foster
Known as one of the best NFL players to follow on Twitter, Foster is not only the Texans’ star running back, but a character perfectly suited for the Hard Knocks environment. Houston will rely on the 28-year old running back for heavy offensive production again this season. In training camp, he is sure to provide a few memorable moments, just like he has done on Twitter.
Replacing a Legend
For just the second time in franchise history, the Houston Texans will take the field without wide receiver Andre Johnson. The only other time was the first season in franchise history, which was a year before the Texans drafted him. After 12 seasons in Houston, their legendary receiver is now playing with division rival Indianapolis. Replacing Johnson will mainly fall upon the shoulders of DeAndre Hopkins, who actually had more receiving yards and touchdowns than Johnson last season.
Breakout Star: Mike Vrabel
The former New England outside linebacker, best known for his exploits as a goal line tight end, is currently the linebackers coach for the Texans. A rising star in the coaching world, the 39-year old enters his second season with the Texans after three years as an assistant at Ohio State, his alma mater. Vrabel is already well known due to his playing career, but Hard Knocks has a chance to catapult his coaching career.
Matt Pearce is a graduate of National Football Post’s Introduction to Scouting and Scouting Boot Camp and is a journalism student at the University of Nebraska. Follow him on Twitter @Matt_Pearce13

All-Free Agent Team (Defense)

Technically speaking, unrestricted free agency is over for the 2015 offseason and has been for more than a week.
On May 12, all free agents became street free agents, compared to previous years when it was June 1. After this date, all free agent signings don’t count against compensatory draft picks in the following draft, hence the reclassification of the players.
With this in mind, there are still some players on the market who could help your favorite team reach the playoffs in the 2015 season. As teams suffer injuries in minicamps and other team activities, expect to see these free agents sign with teams.
Earlier this week, I post looked at the best offensive free agents left.
Defensive End: Dwight Freeney
With 111.5 career sacks, the 35-year old Freeney has been one of the best pass rushers since entering the NFL in 2002. An Indianapolis legend, he has spent the last two seasons in San Diego and has recorded a total of four sacks in 20 games. While he may not be taking down the quarterback as much as he used to, he is still getting pressure. He had 40 quarterback hurries last season, tied for the ninth most in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). Freeney is no longer an every down player, but he can contribute as a pass rushing specialist.
Defensive End: Red Bryant
Bryant is almost the exact opposite of Freeney, offering run stuffing ability, but not much in the way of pass rushing. Playing in Jacksonville, he recorded 23 tackles, one sack and one forced fumble in 2014. The 31-year old did the dirty work for the Jaguars, clogging run lanes and freeing up other defenders. While he was PFF’s third worst pass rushing 4-3 defensive end, he was tied for the third best in run defense. Every team needs a player who stops the run on the defensive line.
Defensive Tackle: Barry Cofield
Prior to missing eight games last season due to injury, Cofield, 31 years old, had missed just one game in his first eight seasons. Most nose tackles are run defense specialists, but Cofield made a habit of getting to the quarterback in 2012 and 2013, recording a combined five sacks, 24 quarterback hits and 43 quarterback hurries in these seasons, per PFF. Interior pass rush is the toughest for offenses to stop, so defensive coaches are always on the look out for players with Cofield’s ability.
Defensive Tackle: C.J. Mosley
Due to the performance of Mosley’s namesake in Baltimore last year, the 31-year old defensive tackle is now the “other” C.J. Mosley. Thrust into the starting lineup last year with Nick Fairley injured, Mosley filled in admirably and the highly regarded Detroit defense didn’t appear to miss a beat. He can start if needed, but is best fit as a backup who plays about 20 snaps per game.
Linebacker: Lance Briggs
For the first time in Briggs’ career, he won’t be playing in Chicago. After 12 seasons and 1,173 tackles, the the Bears decided not to re-sign him. Over the last two seasons, the 34-year old has been limited to a total of 17 games due to injuries. When on the field in 2013 and 2014, he has been productive, averaging just over six tackles per game. Plenty of teams could use help at linebacker and San Francisco has expressed quite a bit of interest. Expect to see Briggs sign with a team soon.
Linebacker: Geno Hayes
After starting 25 games at outside linebacker for the Jaguars the past two years, Hayes is still looking for a job. With Jacksonville, the 27-year old recorded 128 tackles, three sacks, two interceptions and two forced fumbles. PFF graded him as their 12th best 4-3 outside linebacker last season (out of 40 qualifiers). An undersized linebacker (226 lbs), he won’t be a fit for most teams, but on the field he has been productive.
Linebacker: Jacquian Williams
The New York Giants have gone through quite a few linebackers in recent years and Williams is one of them. In four seasons at the Meadowlands, he started 22 games and recorded 243 tackles and two sacks from his outside linebacker position. Before ending 2014 on injured reserve, he had 77 tackles in nine games. The 26-year old Williams isn’t likely find another starting job, but he can be a solid backup for teams.
Cornerback: Tarell Brown
Brown has spent his entire eight-year career in the Bay Area, spending seven seasons with the 49ers and one season (2014) with the Raiders. He has been a starter since 2011, though he probably won’t find a starting job at this point in free agency. With Oakland, he allowed 62.7 percent of passes to be completed against him for a quarterback rating of  91.7, per PFF. There won’t be any repeats of 2012 (his best season), but the 30-year old can still be a solid cornerback in the NFL.
Cornerback: Carlos Rogers
A teammate of Brown since 2011, Rogers, 33 years old, has started 123 regular season games in his 1o year career. Playing just seven games last season before a knee injury ended his season, Rogers struggled in coverage, allowing 84.6 percent of passes to be completed against him for a quarterback rating of 116.3. This completion percentage was tied for the worst in the NFL out of qualifying cornerbacks, per PFF. Rogers has lost a step, but if a team loses a cornerback to injury, he will be on the short list for many general managers.
Safety: Dawan Landry
Since 2010 (five seasons), few safeties have been as productive as the 32-year old Landry, who has recorded 515 tackles without missing a game. A veteran of Rex Ryan’s blitz happy defenses (Landry has played for Ryan in Baltimore and New York), Landry was PFF’s ninth best safety last season. A reunion with Ryan in Buffalo would make sense. Expect Landry to join a new team by training camp.
Safety: Bernard Pollard
Known for hard hits and injuring Patriots’ players, the 30-year old Pollard puts the strong in strong safety. A box safety, he is part of a dying breed in the NFL, as teams are looking for versatile safeties who excel in coverage. Coming off a torn Achilles’ tendon, he must prove his health to teams before they sign the outspoken safety, who requested his release from Tennessee in order to join a winning team.
Matt Pearce is a graduate of National Football Post’s Introduction to Scouting and Scouting Boot Camp. Follow him on Twitter @Matt_Pearce13

All-Free Agent Team (Offense)

Technically speaking, unrestricted free agency is over for the 2015 offseason and has been for more than a week.
On May 12, all free agents became street free agents, compared to previous years when it was June 1. After this date, all free agent signings don’t count against compensatory draft picks in the following draft, hence the reclassification of the players.
With this in mind, there are still some players on the market who could help your favorite team reach the playoffs in the 2015 season. As teams suffer injuries in minicamps and other team activities, expect to see these free agents sign with teams.
The defensive free agents will be posted at a later date.
Quarterback: Michael Vick
As Vick has aged, his play has declined and he is no longer the best athlete on the field. Soon to be 35 years old, he won’t be confused for a starting quarterback anytime soon, but he could be a backup for plenty of teams. In one of his three starts last season, he led the New York Jets to a 20-13 upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers, while throwing for two touchdowns. His quarterback rating in these three starts was 83.1.
Running Back: Pierre Thomas
A staple of the Saints’ offense for years, the 30-year old Thomas is one of the better pass catching running backs in the league. He is coming off an injury-shorted season, but still caught 45 passes for 378 yards. While he has never played outside of Sean Payton’s diverse scheme, Thomas has attributes that can be transferred to any offense in the league. He can contribute as a third down running back for most teams.
Wide Receiver: James Jones
Released by the Oakland Raiders after the draft, Jones was the best receiver in Oakland last season. With a rookie under center (Derek Carr) and a lack of other talent on the offensive side of the ball, Jones caught 73 passes for 666 yards and six touchdowns. Prior to that, he played in the receiver friendly Packers’ offense. There won’t be any repeats of 2013 where he caught 14 touchdowns, but the 31-year old Jones can still be a solid receiver in the NFL.
Wide Receiver: Donnie Avery
Injuries limited Avery to just six games (three starts) in 2014, but prior to that he was a productive receiver for Kansas City and Indianapolis. Between the 2012 and 2013 seasons, he caught 100 passes for 1,377 yards and five touchdowns. Soon to be 31 years old, Avery isn’t a spectacular receiver, but he can be a contributor for a team looking to add a veteran presence to their offense.
Wide Receiver: Wes Welker
One of the best slot receivers in history, Welker’s performance has sharply declined recently. Last season, he caught 49 passes for 464 yards and two touchdowns and appeared to be a shell of his former self at times. At 34 years old with a concussion history, his career is close to over. There is a chance he could come in and contribute as a fourth receiver for some teams.
Tight End: Jermaine Gresham
If not for back surgery earlier in the offseason, Gresham would have been off the free agent market by now. Teams are waiting for his back to heal before giving him a look. Soon to be 27 years old, Gresham caught 62 passes last season, but this is an inflated number from Andy Dalton regularly checking down to him. Assuming his back progresses nicely, expect him to be with a new team by training camp.
Offensive Tackle: Jake Long
A former first overall pick, talent isn’t the question with Long––it is his health. The 30-year old hasn’t played a full 16-game schedule since 2010 and is currently rehabbing a torn ACL, which was suffered in week eight. This is the second year in a row that he has torn his ACL, causing teams to stay away. Once healthy, Long should sign a contract with playing time incentives and little guaranteed money.
Offensive Tackle: Anthony Collins
One of the prized free agents in Tampa Bay’s 2014 haul, the 29-year old Collins lasted just one season with the Buccaneers, in what was his first season as a full-time starter. He fell from Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) 23rd rated offensive tackle in 2013 to 63rd in 2014. With the ability to play either tackle position, most teams would love to have him on their roster, but he is likely holding out for a starting position.
Guard: Justin Blalock
Since entering the league in 2007, Blalock has started 125 out of a possible 128 games for Atlanta, the only team he has ever played for. Released in a salary cap move, the 31-year old has been a top 30 guard the last two seasons according to PFF. He isn’t a top guard, but he could be a quality starter for a team.
Guard: Rob Sims
Sims is in a similar situation to Blalock, being 31 years old and having started 94 out of the last 96 games for Detroit and Seattle. Sims wasn’t as good according to PFF, ranking in the top 40 the past two seasons, but that is still a serviceable level. Sims is the type of guard who you can improve upon, but you could also do much worse than him.
Center: Chris Myers
One of the best centers in the NFL over the last few seasons, Myers has started 128 straight games for the Texans and Broncos. At 286 lbs, he is undersized for the position, but has thrived in zone blocking schemes as a run-blocking center. The 33-year old has received a few looks as a free agent after Houston cut him for salary cap reasons. If he goes to a team with a zone-blocking scheme, he should have another successful season.
Matt Pearce is a graduate of National Football Post’s Introduction to Scouting and Scouting Boot Camp. Follow him on Twitter @Matt_Pearce13

NFL Draft Lottery?

Tuesday night, the NBA had their annual draft lottery, which can completely change the nature of the draft. While that didn’t occur this year, it has in the past.
Of the four major American sports leagues, the NBA and NHL employ a type of draft lottery, while the MLB and NFL don’t, preferring a draft that is solely the inverse of the standings.
Could the NFL change to a lottery system? Technically, yes. There is nothing stopping commissioner Roger Goodell, the owners, and the NFLPA from doing this, but it won’t happen.
One of the aspects that separates the NFL from the other major American sports leagues is parity.
Going back to the 2010 season, at least one of the teams selecting in the top two of the draft has gone on to either make the playoffs or still be in the playoff race entering week 17.
Part of the reason for this is rewarding the worst teams with the best draft selections. In a lottery system, the team with the worst record can end up with the fourth selection. Usually a team drafting that high is searching for a franchise quarterback and in any given draft, there aren’t four franchise quarterbacks. Teams already have enough trouble finding a franchise quarterback. There is no need to make that even harder.
The NBA draft lottery was created as a measure to stop teams from tanking. While some teams are still employing this tactic (I’m looking at you Philadelphia), the lottery has been an effective measure for the NBA.
Looking at the NFL, tanking isn’t a problem. No team is putting out a roster full of scrubs in order to try and secure a higher draft selection.
On any given Sunday, anything can happen. Tampa Bay owned the first overall selection in the draft, yet they defeated the AFC North champion Pittsburgh Steelers in week four. New England ended up winning the Super Bowl, yet three of their four losses came against teams that didn’t even make the playoffs.
Every team harbors playoff dreams at the beginning of the season, and this carries on for most of the year.
As a fan, you can root for your team to lose late in the season, if the season is lost, in order to improve draft position. The players and coaches on the teams aren’t going to do that though, as their jobs are at stake.
The main reason there is a draft lottery in other leagues is to stop teams from intentionally losing. The NFL doesn’t have this kind of problem, so there would be no need for a NFL draft lottery, though it would provide even more intrigue to an already dramatic event.
Matt Pearce is a graduate of National Football Post’s Introduction to Scouting and Scouting Boot Camp. Follow him on Twitter @Matt_Pearce13