Thomas Casale, Author at National Football Post

Week 12 College Football Picks: Syracuse-Notre Dame Yankee Stadium Clash, WVU at OK State

Posted on 15 November 2018 | by Thomas Casale

Each week we’ll be providing our top college football picks.

Also check out our NFL Week 11 “Lookahead Lines” story, finding value (or not) by comparing earlier lines, and identifying recency bias.

Back to the college game. (Season record: 20-15.)

Week 12 College Football Picks, Preview: West Virginia in a Great Spot on the Road and Syracuse Catching Points Against Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium

Memphis/SMU OVER 72.5 (Friday)

I grew up rooting for the old Pony Express so I’m a closet SMU fan. I know the team well and the Ponies have had little success against Memphis in recent years. In their last four games against SMU, Memphis has scored 48, 63, 51 and 66 points. The Tigers won last year’s meeting 66-45 and we should see another game that approaches 100 points.

SMU’s offense is finally starting to click under new coach Sonny Dykes. The Mustangs have scored 107 points in their last two games with wins over Houston and UConn. Memphis has scored 106 points in its last two games with victories over East Carolina and Tulsa.

While the Mustangs’ offense is rolling, their defense continues to struggle. SMU is allowing 242 rushing yards per game in conference play and now must face Memphis running back Darrell Henderson who is averaging 9.2 yards per carry on the season.

SMU ranks 115th in scoring defense allowing 36.8 points per game, while Memphis ranks 86th giving up 30.5 per contest. Both teams will put up points with ease Friday night in what could be the highest-scoring game of the college football season.

NFL Week 11 Lookahead Lines: Eagles Now Big Underdogs At New Orleans, Carolina Bigger Faves at Detroit Despite Steelers Blowout

Posted on 14 November 2018 | by Thomas Casale

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “lookahead lines,” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the Week NFL 11 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

NFL Week 11 Lines, Before And After: Carolina Bigger Favorite At Detroit Despite Getting Crushed By Steelers, Meanwhile Steelers Move Past Key Number Against Reeling Jaguars

nfl week 11 lines betting jags steelers

Carolina Panthers (-4 or -3.5) at Detroit lions

It’s not often a team gets blown out on national television 52-21 and the line moves in their favor, but that’s what we have in this matchup. Last week the Panthers were -3 at the SuperBook and -1.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Even after getting drilled by the Steelers, the line moved to Carolina -4.

That’s because the Lions are arguably the second worst team in the NFL right now. Detroit is 0-3 both SU and ATS in its last three games, losing by 14, 15 and 12 points over that span. Carolina didn’t show up last Thursday night in Pittsburgh but prior to that loss the Panthers were riding a three-game winning streak SU and ATS.

While the Lions look like they’ve waived the white flag on the season, it should be noted that the Panthers aren’t the same team away from home. Carolina is 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this season with its lone win being a come-from-behind victory over the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Lions are 2-2 SU and ATS at home with wins over the Patriots and Packers.

There seems to be some value here with the Lions. The problem is Detroit has looked lifeless in its last three games, so it may not matter.

Week 11 College Football Picks: Fresno Over Boise, Washington State A Short Road Favorite And More

Posted on 8 November 2018 | by Thomas Casale

Each week we’ll be providing our top college football picks. Season Record: 17-13.

This week we have six plays, including Fresno State laying a short number on the road in Boise and fading Duke as a big favorite.

Also check out our NFL Week 10 “Lookahead Lines” story, finding value (or not) by comparing earlier lines, and identifying recency bias. Back to the college game:

Week 11 College Football Picks: Fresno State Bulldogs -2.5 at Boise State, Fading Duke, And More Miami Dominance Over Georgia Tech

Fresno State -2.5 over Boise State (Friday)

This is a huge game in the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State is 8-1 and Boise State 7-2. It might be surprising to see the Broncos as the home dog here but there’s a reason for it. Fresno State is just a much better team.

The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and won last year in Boise 28-17. Boise State has already lost at home to San Diego State and its offense struggles against better defenses. Fresno State is holding conference opponents to 93 yards below their season average, while quarterbacks hit just 48 percent of their passes against the Bulldogs.

A Las Vegas oddsmaker recently stated he would make Fresno State around a field goal favorite over UCF on a neutral field. The Bulldogs are the best non-Power 5 team this season. There’s value taking the Bulldogs under a field goal. They should win rather easily on the road in a showcase game.

NFL Week 10: In ‘Lookahead Lines,’ Steelers Drop From 6.5 to 4, Falcons Gettin’ Respect

Posted on 7 November 2018 | by Thomas Casale

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “lookahead lines” o see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the NFL Week 10 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

NFL Week 9 Lines, Before And After: Some Value on Steelers at Home, Big Shift in Falcons and Browns, Also Looking at Lions and Redskins

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

The Panthers haven’t gotten a lot of respect from oddsmakers this year. Just two weeks ago they were a home underdog to the Ravens and the line against the Steelers was 6.5 when the SuperBook released its early numbers last week.

The number stayed at 6.5 when the SuperBook and many other shops put out their opening numbers for Week 10 but the Panthers were quickly bet down to +4 within 24 hours. As of Tuesday, that’s where the line was at most Las Vegas sportsbooks. The Panthers are on a three-game winning streak with wins over the Eagles, Ravens and Buccaneers. Carolina is also 3-0 ATS in those games, two of them at home. The Panthers haven’t fared as well on the road this season, going 1-2 both SU and ATS.

The Steelers are also rolling with four consecutive wins both SU and ATS. After losing their first two games at home outright to the Chiefs and Ravens, the Steelers have won their last two over the Browns and Falcons by over two touchdowns.

The money came in on the Panthers but so far this year, Carolina hasn’t been the same team away from home. With the Steelers hitting their stride, there’s some value laying the short number at home, especially if the line continues to drop.

Read the remainder of NFL Week 10: In ‘Lookahead Lines,’ Steelers Drop From 6.5 to 4, Falcons Gettin’ Respect on SportsHandle.