The Arizona Cardinals have started the season 5-0 and remain the only undefeated team. They are also 4-1 ATS and have made their bettors very happy. Quarterback Kyler Murray has a 113.0 passer rating and a 75.2% completion percentage, both good for first in the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns have been able to bounce back nicely off a loss. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. The Browns have an excellent 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games and will host an undefeated team to cap off their extremely tough first six-week schedule.
Why Arizona Cardinals can cover the spread
The Cardinals are red hot but have been hit by Covid-19 hard this week. Three players were put on the Covid-19 list. Star pass rusher Chandler Jones will miss the game due to Covid-19. The other players’ identities with potentially positive tests are unknown, but All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins missed practice Wednesday with an illness.
The Cardinals have had back-to-back impressive wins against the Rams and 49ers, taking down two teams in their division. Arizona is the third in team DVOA according to Football Outsiders and has been able to win games on both sides of the ball. They look like a complete team and have positive ATS trends in Week 6 and in October.
Baker Mayfield has been underwhelming through five games. The Cardinals’ pass defense has been great, surrendering only 6.7 yards per attempt, good for 6th in the league.
Why Cleveland Browns can cover the spread
The Browns are dealing with their own injury concerns. Running back Nick Chubb has been ruled out, meaning Kareem Hunt will get most of the workload and he has been extremely efficient this season. He leads all running backs with at least 40 rushing attempts in EPA, 10th in first downs out of all running backs, which is staggering considering he has only played 50% of the snaps in one game this season.
The Browns have been terrific at holding teams to be one-dimensional. They are fifth in run defense DVOA, meaning you will have to air it out to beat this team. Yes, Kyler Murray is playing at a high level, but he could be in for a long day without a run game.
And Cleveland usually wins SU when favored (12-2 past 14 times in this situation).
Cardinals Browns Betting Pick
The Browns offensive line is banged up. J.C Tretter, Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills are all questionable. Give me the undefeated team as underdogs.
Arizona Cleveland Betting Trends
Browns are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games against an opponent in the NFC West division.
Browns are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games as the favorite.
Cardinals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games played in October.
UNDER is 9-2 Arizona’s last 11 games on the road.
Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in Week 6.
Browns are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games played in Week 6.