Oct 31, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Carolina Panthers cornerback Donte Jackson (26) breaks up a pass intended for Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Tajae Sharpe (4) in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta Carolina Pick, OVER total, Moore TD

Two weeks ago, Atlanta and Carolina went crazy in a 37-34 game that soared OVER the total. And with little changed on either side, its hard to envision a game staying UNDER 42.5.

The Falcons tend to play UNDER on short weeks (7 in a row) while Carolina don’t cover on short weeks. Carolina has covered just three times in their past 16 games and with McCaffrey long gone and interim coaching still ruling the post-Ruhle roost, 2.5 points doesn’t seem enough incentive to bet them here in Week 10.

Atlanta Carolina Pick: CAR +2.5, Total 42.5 | Matchup Report

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Why Atlanta can cover the spread

Atlanta can reclaim top spot in the NFC South with a win here and they own all the head-to-head and historical trends against Carolina. How so? They are 11-3 SU past 14 meetings and 5-1 ATS past 6 trips to Carolina.

Marcus Mariota has been terrific and will lean into Drake London and Kyle Pitts here to get things done against a Panthers teams that never covers at home on short weeks (0-6-1 ATS past 7 Thursday home games).

Why Carolina can cover the spread

Any team catching 2.5 points at home is a candidate to cover a spread with that field goal looming. Especially since the last game was decided in OT by a field.

PJ Walker will start after getting benched in their Week 9 loss to Cincy so he is motivated to reclaim the QB mantle and will work with DJ Moore and D’Onta Foreman to do it.

Atlanta Carolina Pick

Neither team can play any defense and they both attack on offense. Its very hard to see this game staying UNDER on a short week, so we play OVERE 42.5.

Carolina Atlanta Prop Picks

Kyle Pitts Anytime TD +280 at FanDuel

The big TE grabbed a bunch of passes against Carolina last time out and is too imposing physically for Carolina’s secondary. He is a good bet at good value here.

DJ Moore, Anytime TD +160 at FanDuel

Explosive Moore is a good choice here, especially if this game gets hopping offensively which we predict will happen.

Carolina Atlanta Betting Trends

Panthers are 2-14 SU, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games

Falcons are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games against Carolina.

Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at Carolina.

Falcons have played 7 straight Week 10 UNDERs

Falcons have played 6 straight Thursday UNDERs (8-3 past 11 short weeks)

Panthers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games

Panthers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games Thursday home games

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