Ravens Bills Week 1 Pick, OVER again?

Last time we were making Ravens Bills picks, it was January and Baltimore had just choked a two-point conversion sending Buffalo to the AFC title game.

Now the host Bills – beset by injuries in the secondary –  are 1-point home dogs after opening as small favorites. And the total has been bet down, which feels like sportsbook bait given the high-powered offenses on both sides.

Buffalo usually wins at home (30-5 SU run) and the Ravens usually cover in Week 1 (12-5 ATS run). The UNDER usually prevails when these teams met and the January game snuck over by a half point.

Ravens Bills Week 1 pick: Odds: BUF +1, Total 50.5 @ FanDuel | Matchup Stats

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Lamar Jackson threw for multiple touchdowns both games vs the Bills last year and the Buffalo secondary is a mess, so it might be worse Sunday night. If they even need to throw the ball with Derrick Henry and Justice Hill and Lamar running wild too.

This is revenge – albeit not as satisfying – for that January loss and sets the tone for another possible playoff meeting this season.

The Ravens usually start quick, rewarding bettors early.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo home losses come few and far between and they won’t like the fact they are now home dogs. The Bills have been home dogs just twice since 2020 and won both times, scoring 100 points total in wins vs the Dolphins and Seahawks.

Everyone knows Josh Allen will take matters into his own hands as he looks to repeat his MVP antics of 2024. Betting on the Bills to win at home feels like the safest bet one can make.

Ravens Bills Week 1 Pick

The Ravens crushed the Bills last year in the regular season but Week 1 feels weird to be expecting that outcome. While we feel the sportsbook is baiting us with a shrinking total, the state of Buffalo’s secondary looks like a disaster waiting to happen. The OVER feels like the safest bet here, even at a high 50.5 at FanDuel.

Baltimore Buffalo Betting Trends

UNDER is 10-3 past 13 meetings

OVER is 14-5 Baltimore’s last 19 games.

OVER is 9-2 Baltimore’s last 11 games on the road.

Ravens 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games played in Week 1

Bills 30-5 SU in its last 35 games at home

UNDER is 9-3 Buffalo’s last 12 games played in Week 1.