Sep 29, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) runs through Buffalo Bills linebacker Dorian Williams (42) tackle attempt during the first half  at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Ravens Bills Picks, AFC Divisional Betting OVER

Home playoff underdogs have been a great bet in recent years and the Buffalo Bills will try to extend a 12-3-1 ATS streak when they catch 1 point at home to Baltimore.

Your MVP finalists will drive the score skywards n the late AFC Divisional Game and this could easily be 45-42 game with the last team to touch the ball winning.

Baltimore is a tough road team (15-6 ATS run) and Buffalo almost always wins at home (1-3 SU run). This is a true toss-up and EVEN odds battle and should be a hoot with lots of money to be made on props at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Ravens Bills Pick: Odds BUF +1, Total 51.5 | Matchup Report

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Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Lamar Jackson leads the league’s most impressive offense with dual RBs in Derrick Henry and Justice Hill, impressive WRs and two terrific tight ends.

If all those options are covered, then Lamar takes off. As a playoff road favorite, the Ravens have covered all three times since 1980 and they are 14-5 ATS since 2001 as a playoff road team.

The Ravens defense isn’t what it used to be but its still better than Buffalo’s so even if you predict Josh Allen will match Lamar, the Bills still don’t cut it.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Allen might win his first MVP and he is dying to get to the Super Bowl after being blocked by the league’s best QBs in recent seasons. We have seen him hero-ball the team before and he will do everything in his power.

As a home team, the Bills get a true advantage although the cold isn’t going to faze the Ravens much. RBs James Cook and Ty Johnson need to play well to open things up in the passing game.

The Week 4 thrashing at he hands of Baltimore is ancient history and happened with half the Bills defense injured. That situation does not repeat itself here and a team that almost always wins at home can get it done here.

Ravens Bills Pick

There are some fun Ravens Bills props to consider here (UNDER punts for example if you expect a shootout) and the spread is mostly irrelevant since the winner will cover. The total is high at 51.5 and we got burned by the Lions and Commanders when we bet UNDER. This one we feel should soar into the 60s and we play OVER.

Ravens Bills Betting Trends

Home playoff dogs on 12-3-1 ATS streak past few seasons

Ravens are 14-5 ATS since 2001 as playoff road team

Ravens have been playoff road chalk 3 times since 1980, won and covered all three

UNDER is 10-2 past 12 meetings

Ravens are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games on the road.

Bills are 18-3 SU past 21 home games

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