Ravens Browns Prediction, BAL covers again?

These teams met just two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football, and the Baltimore Ravens won 16-10, even with Lamar Jackson throwing four interceptions. The Cleveland Browns are coming off a bye week and will look to rebound against their division rival. 

However, they have struggled mightily within the AFC North (2-10 ATS in their last 12 divisional games). The Ravens are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 divisional games. Add that to a Ravens record of 12-2 ATS in their previous 14 games when playing as the underdog, the Ravens are the right pick here.

Jackson won’t be throwing four interceptions again – and they still covered the spread two weeks ago in that game. Take the Ravens +2.5 at FanDuel.

Ravens Browns Prediction: Odds CLE -3, Total 43 | Matchup Report 

The Ravens defense hasn’t been as dominant as the previous few years, but they still have been a solid unit, sitting at 9th in points per game allowed with 21.7. They haven’t allowed more than 23 points in four straight games. 

The Ravens’ strength on offense is their rushing attack. The Browns are 28th in EPA per play against the run since Week 9, and considering Lamar had four interceptions in their last meeting, I expect a heavy dose of Lamar running the ball in this game. 

Why the Browns will cover the spread

If you’re a believer in teams covering the spread off a bye week, there is some data to back that up, as teams have covered at a 58% rate the week after their bye since 2008. The Browns’ bye week came at a perfect time, as they are 1-3 in their previous four games. They should have been able to fix some of their issues over the bye week.

Lamar has been on a slump lately, sitting at 20th in EPA per play since Week 9. Injuries surrounding him could have something to do with that, and it has not improved, especially on defense. This will be the Ravens’ first complete game without Marlon Humphrey. When he left the game last week, the Steelers scored 17 straight points in the fourth quarter. 

Ravens Browns Prediction

Even with all the injuries, the Ravens are the better team. Getting the Ravens with the points is a bargain, they were +2.5 at FanDuel as of Thursday night and we are on that pick. 

Ravens +2.5

Browns Ravens Prop Picks

Lamar Jackson UNDER 230.5 Passing Yards

The Ravens will have to rely on the running game.

Kareem Hunt OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards

Hunt will have to come up big on third downs for the Browns

Mark Andrews OVER 56.5 Receiving Yards

In their meeting two weeks ago, Andrews had 10 targets for 64 yards and a score

Cleveland Baltimore Betting Trends

Browns are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games at home to Baltimore

Ravens are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games when playing as the underdog

UNDER is 11-2 Baltimore’s last 13 games on the road.

Ravens are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 divisional games

Browns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 divisional games