Not only are the Denver Broncos 3-0 this season, but they are also undefeated against the spread. This season, they haven’t been tested, beating up on the Jacksonville Jaguars, N.Y Jets, and N.Y Giants.
So do they deserve to be small home chalk against Baltimore based on the fact they have won by an average of 16.7 points per game? They will host Justin Tucker and the Ravens at Mile High, where its conceivable we see a 70+ yard field goal this week.
Mile High is the place to do it. Tucker nailed an NFL record 66-yard field goal to win last week and helped his team carry momentum into Denver. And the Ravens are no easy mark as underdogs, where they are 11-2 ATS the last 13 games in this situation.
Ravens Broncos Odds: Denver -1, Total 45 | Matchup Report
Why the Ravens can cover the spread
Lamar Jackson has missed back-to-back practices this week with back soreness. Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman doesn’t seem to be concerned. “I don’t think it’s anything serious,” Roman said before practice. “But we’re just going to have to kind of wait and see. I think he’s going to be in good shape. We’ll wait and see.”
All signs point to Lamar playing, meaning Denver needs to account for his running ability. He is currently 4th in the NFL in rushing yards and leads the league in yards per carry with 7.2. Denver’s run defense has yet to be tested this year, but last year they struggled. They ranked 25th in rush defense DVOA according to Football Outsiders in 2020.
If the Ravens remain dogs, they are a menace for bettors who fade them in that role.
Why the Broncos can cover the spread
This will be Denver’s first real opponent of the season. Their previous opponents have a combined 0-9 record. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been spectacular through three games.
He has completed 76.8% of his passes with a passer rating of 116.4. He leads all quarterbacks NFL in EPA per play; a statistic used to show many points a player gets his team every play.
Denver is 11-3 SU in their past 14 at home to Baltimore and have won 6 in a row as favorites (going 5-1 ATS in the process.)
Ravens Broncos Betting Pick
I am not going to overreact to Denver’s 3-0 start. I still believe Baltimore is the better team. If Denver beats Baltimore, I will take them more seriously. Baltimore wins this game outright.
Baltimore Denver Props
Teddy Bridgewater OVER .5 interceptions +125
This is tremendous value at +125. He has yet to throw an interception this season, but Baltimore’s defense will test him.
Lamar Jackson OVER 274.5 Rush + Pass Yards
This number is way too low. Lamar is averaging 83.7 rushing yards per game. That means he has to eclipse 200 passing yards.
Javonte Williams OVER 10.5 Receiving Yards
Expect Williams to become the number one running back very shortly. Teddy will have to check the ball down more in this game.
Ravens Broncos Betting Trends
Broncos are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games at home against Baltimore.
Ravens are 12-1 SU in their last 13 Sunday road games
Ravens are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when playing as the underdog.
Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played in October.
Broncos won 6 straight as favorite, 5-1 ATS