Dec 10, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald (99) grabs Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) jerexzsy while he throws during the  first half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Ravens Jaguars Pick, Trevor UNDER, Mitchell TD

Two AFC division leaders riding very different waves go head to head Sunday night when the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Baltimore Ravens, with Baltimore giving up 3.5 points on the road.

Marquee QBs will decide this one and Lamar Jackson has been terrific of late while Trevor Lawrence has been mediocre. That opinion translates to our prop bet later in this article.

It’s a tricky line. Here’s how we see it.

Baltimore @ Jacksonville +3.5, Total 43.5 at Draft Kings | Matchup Report

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Why the Ravens will cover the spread

Lamar Jackson is 12-6 in his last 18 December/January games, and the streaking Ravens have three double-digit-point victories since the start of November. Meanwhile, the untrustworthy Jaguars have lost consecutive games to inferior teams missing their starting quarterbacks.

Why the Jaguars will cover the spread

The Jags are back at home and getting a generous amount of points for a talented team that hasn’t lost three in a row since last October. Injured quarterback Trevor Lawrence should also be in much better shape than he was last week, and same for key weapons Zay Jones and Travis Etienne Jr.

They have also been a reliable bet in conference games at 12-5 ATS the past few seasons and own a 6-1 ATS streak vs the Ravens as well.

Ravens Jaguars pick

I don’t love that hook and wouldn’t be surprised at all if Lawrence and Co. pulled this off outright, especially after the Ravens cut it way too close at home against the Rams in Week 14. I’m taking the points with the home side, but with some reluctance.

Jaguars Ravens Prop Bets

Trevor Lawrence UNDER 227.5 passing yards @ Draft Kings – the Ravens pass rush is nasty and the secondary has been firm. We see the long-haired beauty going UNDER.

Keaton Mitchell Anytime TD +150 at Draft Kings – Baltimore rookie RB has been dynamic of late and gets confidence and touches here. He might not be the goal-line back but he can get in from anywhere and is good value here at +150.

Jaguars Ravens Betting Trends

Jaguars are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games played in December

Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Baltimore.

UNDER is 14-6 Baltimore’s last 20 games as favorites

Jaguars are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 conference games.

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