Derrick Henry is in Baltimore and Kansas City couldn’t stop the run a year ago – does that spell a low-scoring win by the Ravens as they open the NFL season at the Chiefs?
The Ravens OL has been overhauled but is it better? Baltimore is a dog here, a situation where Lamar Jackson has thrived (12-1 ATS in 13 career starts).
Meanwhile, Super Bowl winners almost always win in Week 1 the following season (20-4 SU) and they still have the league’s best QB and the best coach.
Ravens Chiefs Picks: Odds KC -3, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report
Why Baltimore can cover the spread
The Ravens defense is always ferocious (but lost some star power in free agency) and their run game gets a chance to be the same. Sprinkle in Jackson’s electric abilities along with Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman outside and a slew of positive betting trends and a cover here is a distinct possibility.
They cover on the road (8-2 ATS past 10), they cover as dogs (21-5-1 ATS past 27). They cover in season openers (7-1 ATS) and they win on Thursdays (10-3 SU).
Why Kansas City can cover the spread
Doubt the Chiefs at your wallet’s peril. Pat Mahomes has a terrific supporting cast again and they are home where the Arrowhead noise is a true home field edge.
KC usually wins vs AFC teams (18-3 SU past 21) and they won and covered the last six games of the 2023 season, so they are on an ATS roll here. They have also won 8 of 9 openers, 6 of 7 vs Baltimore and 5 of 6 Thursdays.
A lot of factors point to the Chiefs opening defense of their Super Bowl title with a win here.
Chiefs Ravens Pick
There are UNDER trends galore with these teams and defenses are often ahead of defenses early in the year. Both teams should lean into the ground game here and both have QBs who can take off and keep the chains moving and the clock running. We see this game UNDER 46.5.
Chiefs Ravens Prop Picks
Derrick Henry OVER 80 rushing yards +170 – his rushing yard average was under 70 for the first time in a decade last year but he should be fresh and healthy and the Ravens will want to try out their new toy here. We see him OVER 80 at a nice payout.
Ravens Chiefs Betting Trends
Chiefs are 18-3 SU past 21 conference games
Chiefs won and covered 6 straight heading into 2024
UNDER is 12-5 Kansas City’s last 17 games
UNDER is 18-4 Kansas City’s last 22 games at home.
UNDER is 15-6 Kansas City’s last 21 games as the favourite
Chiefs 6-1 SU past 7 vs Ravens
Chiefs are 5-1 SU past 6 Thursdays
Chiefs played 5 straight UNDERs vs AFC North teams
Ravens are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
Chiefs are 8-1 SU in their last 9 season openers, 8-1 to the OVER
Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in Week 1.
Ravens are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games on a Thursday.
Ravens are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games as the underdog.
