Dec 26, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA; A general view of a Las Vegas Raiders helmet outside of Allegiant Stadium  before the game against the Miami Dolphins. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Ravens Raiders Betting Pick, Props, MNF Preview

Does a slew of injuries this week ruin a pile of compelling trends that point to the Baltimore Ravens covering the spread in the season’s first Monday Nighter at Las Vegas?

No J.K. Dobbins, no Marcus Peters, no Gus Edwards – all injured last week. But the Ravens say all systems are go and Lamar Jackson is the engine that can certainly make up for missing horsepower.

The Ravens own no less than seven significant favorable trends here, including as chalk, on Monday Night, as a road team. But Vegas should have something to say about that hosting the Monday Night audience. Check out the Ravens Raiders betting pick analysis below.

Ravens Raiders Odds: Las Vegas +4, Total 50.5 at Draft Kings | Matchup Report 

Why the Ravens will cover the spread

If you buy Baltimore’s assertion that they can overcome those injuries to start the season and you believe the Lamar Jackson Factor, then there are plenty of historical angles that point to the cover here (the line has shrunk to 4 points from 6.5 points at Draft Kings last week).

First, recency bias – Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games and covered 6 straight as favorites. On the road, the Ravens are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games and they also dominate AFC foes to the tune of 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games.

Week 1 record? Check, the Ravens are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 openers. Monday Night Football? Check, 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games played on a Monday.

Why the Raiders will cover the spread

Finally a true home game with fans for the host Raiders. Their defense was weak in 2021, but new personnel and coaches will make the Vegas D different – time will tell if it’s better.

Derek Carr can be dynamic. He can also be erratic. Still the home dog is a great betting angle, especially on a Monday when the pressure and focus is ramped up. On Mondays, the Raiders have flourished in recent years (for bettors anyway) with a 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on Monday.

Ravens Raiders Betting Pick

Many see this as a Ravens blowout, including the erstwhile Backwards Oracle, a man with a penchant for picking losers but who is 2-1 ATS so far in Week 1. He sees a blowout despite the injury situation.

But we like the OVER here. The Raiders have played OVER the total in 13 of 16 games and their explosive offense and sketchy defense leans us to a high-scoring affair here.

We play OVER 50.5 at Draft Kings (pocket hundreds of dollars in bonuses when you check it out today).

Ravens Raiders Props – Anytime TD Scorer Picks

Darren Waller Anytime TD +120

 

Darren Waller was a monster last season. He had at least eight games last season with ten fantasy points, and he finished the season with nine touchdowns and 1196 yards. 

 

With Nelson Agholor moving on to New England, Waller is officially the number one option in Las Vegas. He had double-digit targets in four of his last five games and scored four touchdowns during that stretch. He could even take another step forward this year and become one of the league’s best offensive players. Getting him at plus odds is a steal. 

 

Latavius Murray Anytime TD +250

 

The Ravens running back room has been decimated by injuries. Gus Edwards and J.K Dobbins are both done for the year, so their running back room currently has Ty’Son Williams and Latavious Murray. Le’Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman will be inactive on Monday. 

 

Williams does not have a carry in the NFL yet. I have a hard time believing they will completely hand him the reigns. Murray is an established veteran and is the bigger body running back on the roster. He should be the go-to back in the red zone. 

 

Longshot: Lamar Jackson 2+ TDs +550

 

I am going to take a swing on Lamar Jackson having a big opening night. Lamar will have to step up in the run game with the running back room being so thin. 

 

The Raiders’ run defense was a huge problem for them last year, and they didn’t do much this offseason to improve it. They surrendered the 2nd most rushing touchdowns last season. 

Baltimore Las Vegas Betting Trends

Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.

OVER is 13-3 in Las Vegas’ last 16 games

Ravens are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road.

Ravens are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games against an opponent in the AFC

Ravens are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in week 1.

Ravens are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games played on a Monday.

Ravens have covered 6 straight as favorites

Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Monday.