Ravens Dolphins Pick, TNF Props

Think quick! What do you get when you take the NFL’s second-best offense and line it up against the league’s third-worst defense?

If you said ‘Duh, an easy cover for the offense,’ then you probably have a head start on your handicapping for the Week 10 Thursday Nighter as Baltimore visits Miami. The line continues to climb, up to -7.5 for the Ravens as of Tuesday night at FanDuel Sportbook.

The Lamar Jackson-led Ravens average 425 yards per game while the Dolphins rank 30th in defense, giving up 391 yards per game. This could be a one-sided affair and easy money.

Ravens Dolphins Betting Pick, Odds: Miami +7.5, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report 

Why the Baltimore Ravens will cover the spread

According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens offense has not missed a beat this season, currently sitting at 7th in offensive DVOA. Jackson is sitting at +1100 for MVP according to FanDuel, which is the 7th best odds. He should at least be in the Top 5, as he is being severely underrated this season. He has the Ravens at 6-2 in arguably the best division in the NFL.

Baltimore has dominated the Fins over the years, covering nine straight overall and six straight here in Miami. Overall, they are 10-2 ATS in 12 recent meetings.

Why the Miami Dolphins will cover the spread

All signs point to Jacoby Brissett getting the start, as Tua Tagovailoa is still dealing with a finger injury. Brissett just led the Dolphins to their first win since Week 1, defeating the Houston Texans 17-9 at home. 

As good as the Ravens’ offense has been, their defense has been underwhelming. They are 26th in DVOA and have allowed 72 points combined in just the last two weeks. The Dolphins’ offense will move the ball against this defense; their defense needs to weather the storm. 

Baltimore Miami Prediction

This game has high-scoring blowout written all over it. The Ravens will ultimately win by at least 10 points. 

Ravens -7.5 

Anytime TD Picks Prop Bets

Mike Gesicki +225 (DraftKings)

Mike Gesicki is the best offensive weapon on the Dolphins. The Ravens have allowed the second-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. 

Rashod Bateman +275 (DraftKings)

The rookie stepped right in and became an integral part of this offense. He has 20 targets in three starts. 

Sammy Watkins +350 (DraftKings)

Sammy Watkins will return from the hamstring injury that has kept him out since Week 5. The Dolphins have allowed the second-most yards and touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season. 

Dolphins Ravens Betting Trends

Dolphins are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against Baltimore.

Ravens are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games on the road.

Ravens 9-0 ATS past 9 vs Miami

Ravens are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played on a Thursday.

Ravens are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games when playing as the favorite.

Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at home.

Dolphins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in November.

UNDER is 10-2 Miami’s last 12 games played on a Thursday.