Aug 14, 2021; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens linebacker Odafe Oweh (99) leaps to sack New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston (2) during the first half  at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Ravens Saints Pick, MNF UNDER

No Mark Andrews, no Michael Thomas, no Rashod Bateman, possibly no Gus Edwards – that’s a lot of offensive firepower on the sidelines in the Week 9 Monday Nighter between the Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints.

Which leads some of us to conclude the running game could be in vogue, grinding the clock towards an inevitable UNDER 47 bet. But that logic ignores the fact Alvin Kamara has rebounded and rookie Chris Olave shapes up as a rookie-of-the-year favorite. And of course Lamar Jackson can turn any game on its head at any time.

The Saints seldom cover on Monday (2-9 ATS run) and usually lose as underdogs (2-9 SU past 11), while the Ravens have struggled as chalk (5-12 ATS).

Ravens Saints Pick: NO +1.5, Total 47 | Matchup Stats

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Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Baltimore needs to win by 2 points to cover here and they almost always win non-conference games (14-3 SU). They will benefit from the absence of Saints CB Marcus Lattimore and LB Chase Hansen as they look for playmakers to step up in the wake of all their injuries.

New Orleans is 28th in defensive scoring, giving up 28 PPG and that includes last week’s 24-0 shutouts against the Raiders. Jackson can shred this run defense which ranks middle of the NFL pack. The Saints don’t bite very hard as an underdog, even at home where they lost 6 of their past 7 in this situation.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

With Mark Andrews out the Saints defense can proceed without Jackson’s favorite red-zone target. And QB Andy Dalton has been very good lately spreading the ball around. Baltimore’s pass defense has been dreadful.

The Saints rank Top 10 in rushing yards as Kamara begins to look like his old self and should be able to control the clock. They have also lost just six times in their past 22 games vs AFC foes.

Ravens Saints Pick

The Saints pitched a shutout last week and with Andrews and Thomas both out, the chances of a shootout are severely diminished. Baltimore has played UNDER 6 of their past 7 as road chalk and we see this Monday Nighter UNDER as well.

Saints Ravens Anytime TD Prop Picks

DeSean Jackson +320

Jackson will be on a snap count tonight, but his deep threat ability should give the Saints some problems.

Juwan Johnson +360

Johnson had two touchdowns in the Saints’ last primetime game. He has the best value out of any Saints player.

Ravens defense +720

Taking a swing here. This is good value against Andy Dalton.

New Orleans Baltimore Betting Trends

Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Monday Night games.

Saints are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games as the underdog.

UNDER is 6-1 past 7 Ravens games as road chalk

Ravens are 14-3 SU in their last 17 non-conference games

Ravens just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as the favourite.

Saints are 16-6 SU in their last 22 non-conference games

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