Ravens Steelers Prediction, Pitt Nasty Underdog

December 03, 2021 - Brenden Deeg

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in complete freefall. They have lost two in a row and tied the Detroit Lions three weeks ago, leaving them on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.

It does not get easier for the Steelers, as they will host the Baltimore Ravens while catching 4.5 points at home.

The Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games within the AFC North division and 5-0-2 ATS in their previous seven games at Pittsburgh. With Ben Roethlisberger playing poorly and the Steelers being 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home, we lean Ravens -4.5 at FanDuel.

Ravens Steelers Prediction: Odds Pitt +4.5, Total 44 | Matchup Report

Why the Ravens will cover the spread

The Ravens have quietly won three of their last four games and are sitting at the top of the AFC North. After a slow start for the Ravens’ defense, they have been casually getting better over their last few games, especially in the run game.

They are fifth in EPA per rush allowed over the last three weeks, which is crucial for this game considering how bad the Steelers pass offense has been.

Anybody that has watched the Steelers this season has seen that Roethlisberger is a dead man walking at quarterback. He is PFFs 35th ranked quarterback out of 37 eligible and had his worst game as a pro last week against the Bengals.

Why the Steelers will cover the spread

Mike Tomlin has been outstanding as the underdog since taking over as head coach, as the Steelers are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 of those games. The spread is sitting at 4.5, which is a lot considering the Steelers are at home.

The Ravens offense has hit a wall over the last three weeks, only averaging 14 points per game during that stretch and ranking 26th in EPA per play. The Steelers’ defense has been good this season, and TJ Watt is back fully healthy. This front seven can slow down the Ravens’ run game.