Oct 23, 2022; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) is tackled by Carolina Panthers linebacker Frankie Luvu (49) in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Ravens Bucs Pick, Brady 3-Game Losing Streak?

Baltimore’s sketchy defense could be just what Tom Brady needs in the Week 8 Thursday Nighter to avoid just the second three-game losing skid of his career. And Tampa’s supposedly strong defense could be just what Lamar Jackson needs.

The Ravens were catching 1.5 points as of Monday at Draft Kings sportsbook and they have been a profit center as underdogs (15-3-1 ATS past 19 times in that situation). But the line swung quickly making Tampa a rare home dog. Brady has been a home dog just twice since arriving here and the Bucs covered both times.

Brady has failed to cover 5 straight when laying points and have been terrible on short weeks at 2-10 ATS over 12 seasons. Check out the matchup stats and watch for line moves and injury reports before kickoff.

Ravens Bucs Pick: Odds TB +1.5, Total 45 | Matchup Stats

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Why the Ravens can cover the spread

As underdogs, the Ravens have been awesome and they beat up NFC teams (13-3 SU past 16 non-conference games). While the line moved early in the week, we won’t be surprised to see late money push this back to even odds or Tampa -1.

And if Tampa’s wilting defense can’t stop PJ Walker or Kenny Pickett, what kind of a mockery will Lamar make of them? Late-game fades continue to plague the Ravens and JK Dobbins is out, but this feels like another scenario where the game’s most dynamic QB can get what he wants.

Why the Bucs can cover the spread

It keeps getting worse in Tampa but the underlying talent and experience makes them a threat every week. The point spread will dance around PK here and if the Bucs are dogs, it’s a good sign for Tampa backers who cashed the only two games in the Brady era in this situation.

We don’t subscribe to the ‘they are due’ line of handicapping folly, and this isn’t a must-win because the NFC South is a shit show, meaning 8-9 might win the division. But this is a big-boy game where Tampa’s big boys will step up.

Ravens Bucs Pick

A three-game losing streak for Tom Brady was last seen in 2002, a rare sighting that we don’t think bettors will see in Week 8. The Ravens were lucky to escape Week 7 and late mistakes against veteran teams will doom you. We play the Bucs to cover on a short week.

Tampa Bay Baltimore Anytime TD Prop Picks

Lamar Jackson Anytime TD +180 at FanDuel

Getting Lamar on primetime at +180 is too good to pass up. With the Ravens’ offense struggling, I expect Lamar to start using his legs more

Rachaad White Anytime TD +280 at FanDuel

This is a great matchup for White. The Ravens have allowed the sixth most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season.

Lamar Jackson OVER 208.5 passing yards at FanDuel

This number is too low. The Buccaneers’ defense has struggled against the pass as of late.

Tampa Bay Baltimore Betting Trends

Bucs are 2-10 ATS their past 12 Thursdays

Ravens are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games against Tampa Bay.

Ravens are 13-3 SU in their last 16 non-conference games

Ravens are 15-3-1 ATS in their last 19 games when playing as the underdog.

Bucs are 6-24 ATS in their last 30 games played in Week 8.

Bucs failed to cover 5 straight as favorites

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