Aug 26, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) readies for the snap against the Cleveland Browns during the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Bet against Super Bowl losers in Week 1

Bet Against Super Bowl Losers in Week 1

There was a time, not too long ago, when betting against the loser of the Super Bowl in Week 1 of the following season was a lock. A guaranteed winner. Easy money.

And betting on the Super Bowl champ to win Week 1 (at least on the moneyline) was also a lock. So pay attention as the Chiefs (small home faves to the Lions) and Eagles (road chalk at the Patriots) open the 2023 campaign.

Indeed, the 12 seasons between Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 45 witnessed the loser of the Big Game fail to cover every season in Week 1. That’s right, 0-12 ATS. And it wasn’t really close straight up either, with the losers going just 2-10 SU. It seemed losing the Super Bowl doomed that team to a Week 1 loss and bettors just kept betting against them year after year.

The pendulum on that trend has swung back in recent years with the Super Bowl loser going 7-4 SU but just 4-7 ATS from Super Bowl 46 to Super Bowl 56 (the Bengals were upset by the Steelers in 2022). But overall, the trend is 4-19 ATS over the past 23 seasons.

Is Super Bowl Loser Hangover Syndrome real?

Is this a real handicapping factor that should make Bengals bettors a little gun-shy, with Super Bowl Loser Hangover Syndrome (SBLHS for short) potentially still a threat? Philadelphia visits New England as small chalk as they aim to get back to the Super Bowl and win it.

And that brings us around to the flip side of the Hangover argument – does the Super Bowl winner always win in Week 1 of the following season? The Chiefs open the season at home to Detroit as they try to extend their overall streak to 14-1 SU.

What about Super Bowl Winner Non-Hangover Syndrome? Is that a thing?

Super Bowl winners have experienced a nearly opposite start to the following season, with the defending champs going 19-4 SU in Week 1 the past 23 seasons. The ATS mark is just 13-8-2, but still a money-making angle for bettors who believe Super Bowl champs will prevail in season openers.

For those interested in recent stats, winners are 8-2 SU and 5-4-1 ATS the past 10 seasons after Tampa won 31-29 at Dallas but failed to cover the spread kicking of the 2021 season and the Rams were pummeled by the Bills last season.

So in the last 20 seasons, only the 2022 Rams, the Patriots after Super Bowl 51, the Ravens after Super Bowl 47 and the Giants after Super Bowl 46 have lost Week 1 of the following season during that time. All four also failed to cover the spread, according to Trend Dummy’s Super Bowl Hangover Chart below.

Super Bowl Losers in Week 1

Winner Wk 1 Loser Wk 1
57 Chiefs L – L Eagles ? – ?
56 Rams L – L Bengals L – L
55 Buccaneers W-L Chiefs W – L
54 Chiefs W-W Niners L – L
53 Patriots W – W Rams W – W
52 Eagles W – W Patriots W – W
51 Patriots L – L Falcons W – L
50 Broncos W- W Panthers L – L
49 Patriots W – P Seahawks L – L
48 Seahawks W – W Broncos W – L
47 Ravens L – L 49ers W – W
46 Giants L – L Patriots W – W
45 Packers W – W Steelers L – L
44 Saints W – L Colts L – L
43 Steelers W – L Cardinals L – L
42 Giants W – W Patriots W – L
41 Colts W – W Bears L – L
40 Steelers W – W Seahawks W – L
39 Patriots W – W Eagles L – L
38 Patriots W – P Panthers L – L
37 Buccaneers W – W Raiders L – L
36 Patriots W – W Rams L – L
35 Ravens W – W Giants L – L
34 Rams W – L Titans L – L
33 Broncos L – L Falcons L – W
32 Broncos W – L Packers W – W
31 Packers W – L Patriots W – W
30 Cowboys L – L Steelers L – L
since SB34 18-3 SU, 13-6-2 ATS   8-13 SU, 4-17 ATS  

So, to take advantage of this juicy trend, check out the sportsbook review page here, choose the best book for you in your state. And start getting ready to become a winner by betting against the Super Bowl loser.