Bet Against Super Bowl Loser in Week 1
There was a time, not too long ago, when betting against the loser of the Super Bowl in Week 1 of the following season was a lock. A guaranteed winner. Easy money.
Indeed, the 12 seasons between Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 45 witnessed the loser of the Big Game fail to cover every season in Week 1. That’s right, 0-12 ATS. And it wasn’t really close straight up either, with the losers going just 2-10 SU. It seemed losing the Super Bowl doomed that team to a Week 1 loss and bettors just kept betting against them year after year.
The pendulum on that trend has swung back in recent years with the Super Bowl loser going 6-2 SU but just 4-4 ATS from Super Bowl 46 to Super Bowl 53. But overall, the trend is 4-16 ATS over the past 20 seasons. And that streak puts the San Francisco 49ers in the unenviable position of being 7-point home favorites against the Arizona Cardinals this year.
Is Super Bowl Loser Hangover Syndrome real?
Is this a real handicapping factor that should make Niner bettors a little gun-shy, with Super Bowl Loser Hangover Syndrome (SBLHS for short) potentially still a threat? The Cardinals are a team on the rise and enjoy a 4-0-1 ATS mark in their past five against the Niners. They hold an 8-3-1 ATS edge against the 49ers going back six seasons.
Granted, the 49ers were terrible for many of those six prior seasons, and they are now a legit Super Bowl contender. So maybe the young Niners can avoid this nasty trend. Historically, they are a great Week 1 bet – 7-2 ATS in their past 9 Week 1 matchups. Even when they were terrible, they were a good bet in this spot.
Speaking of Super Bowl contenders, the Kansas City Chiefs open the season as favorites, according to the Super Bowl 55 futures list posted at SugarHouse Sportsbook. And that brings us around to the flip side of the Hangover argument – does the Super Bowl winner always win in Week 1 of the following season?
What about Super Bowl Winner Non-Hangover Syndrome? Is that a thing?
Super Bowl winners have experienced a nearly opposite start to the following season, with the defending champs going 17-3 SU in Week 1 the past 20 seasons. The ATS mark is just 12-6-2, but still a money-making angle for bettors who believe Super Bowl champs will prevail in season openers.
Kansas City will open the season as the lone Week 1 double-digit favorite. Currently they are -10 (-10.5 at some shops) at home to the Houston Texans, but buyer beware on the Chiefs – these same Texans defeated the Chiefs here a year ago 31-24. The Chiefs have won five straight Week 1 games and covered the last four.
So in the last 20 seasons, only the Patriots after Super Bowl 51, the Ravens after Super Bowl 47 and the Giants after Super Bowl 46 have lost Week 1 of the following season during that time. All three also failed to cover the spread, according to Trend Dummy’s Super Bowl Hangover Chart below.
|Game||Winner||Wk 1||Loser||Wk 1|
|53||Patriots||W – W||Rams||W – W|
|52||Eagles||W – W||Patriots||W – W|
|51||Patriots||L – L||Falcons||W – L|
|50||Broncos||W- W||Panthers||L – L|
|49||Patriots||W – P||Seahawks||L – L|
|48||Seahawks||W – W||Broncos||W – L|
|47||Ravens||L – L||49ers||W – W|
|46||Giants||L – L||Patriots||W – W|
|45||Packers||W – W||Steelers||L – L|
|44||Saints||W – L||Colts||L – L|
|43||Steelers||W – L||Cardinals||L – L|
|42||Giants||W – W||Patriots||W – L|
|41||Colts||W – W||Bears||L – L|
|40||Steelers||W – W||Seahawks||W – L|
|39||Patriots||W – W||Eagles||L – L|
|38||Patriots||W – P||Panthers||L – L|
|37||Buccaneers||W – W||Raiders||L – L|
|36||Patriots||W – W||Rams||L – L|
|35||Ravens||W – W||Giants||L – L|
|34||Rams||W – L||Titans||L – L|
|33||Broncos||L – L||Falcons||L – W|
|32||Broncos||W – L||Packers||W – W|
|31||Packers||W – L||Patriots||W – W|
|30||Cowboys||L – L||Steelers||L – L|
|since SB34||17-3 SU, 12-6-2 ATS||8-12 SU, 4-16 ATS|
So, to take advantage of this juicy trend, check out the sportsbook review page here, choose the best book for you in your state. And start getting ready to become a winner by betting against the Super Bowl loser.