Bills quarterback Josh Allen  walks of the field after fumbling the snap that turned into a Vikings touchdown.

Bills Lions Pick, Dog & UNDER?

Last week the Bills were home favorites in Detroit. This week, they are road favorites in Detroit.

Confusing? The Buffalo snowstorm chased the Bills out of Orchard Park where they defeated the Browns. Now on Thanksgiving, they stay in town as big chalk against the Lions who are riding a rare three-game win streak.

Josh Allen has a wonky elbow, the Lions defense is improving and their offense can put up numbers. There are lots of UNDER trends in play here, but this one could climb into the 50s and go OVER.

Bills Lions Pick: Odds DET +9.5, Total 54.5 | Matchup Stats

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Why the Bills can cover the spread

A month ago, Buffalo was the cream of the crop and easily Super Bowl favorites. Some uneven play from Allen has made for a bumpy ride, but this is still Buffalo and this is still Detroit.

This is a short week, where the Bills have thrived (10-3 ATS past 13 times) while Lions have busted (2-19 SU past 21). Short week, take the superior team with the superior coaching.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit has won three straight, but this is a different animal in Week 12. The Lions always play on Thanksgiving and they seldom win (lost 6 in a row), but this spread could creep back up to 10 points before kickoff.

As an underdog, the Lions are 12-5 ATS, they have covered 6 in a row in November and are 7-2 ATS in their past nine at home. Ten points at home is a lot and almost as tempting as Gramma’s turkey supper.

Bills Lions Pick

Check out the UNDER trends below, there are lots of indications these teams will play UNDER. Allen’s elbow + Detroit’s improved defense makes 54.5 seem pretty high. We like the Lions to cover but we love the game to go UNDER.

Lions Bills Anytime TD Prop Picks

Josh Allen 2+ +700

It is hard to find value on the Bills considering they are playing the worst defense in the NFL. The Lions have allowed the most rushing yards and touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.

Amon-Ra St. Brown +130

St. Brown is the best weapon on the Lions offense. The Bills have allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season.

Bills Lions Betting Trends

UNDER is 13-3 Buffalo’s last 16 games vs NFC North teams.

Lions are 2-19 SU in their last 21 games played in Week 12.

Bills are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in Week 12.

Last 6 meetings all played UNDER the total

Bills have played 5 straight road UNDERs

Bills are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games

Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games at home, 20-8 to the OVER past 28 home games

Lions have covered 6 in a row in November 23

Lions are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as the underdog.


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