Bills Chiefs AFC Championship Pick, Buffalo Covers

January 25, 2025 - Trend Dummy

Buffalo has won just twice as a playoff dog since 1980, back in 1993 at Pittsburgh and last week vs the Ravens. Can they pull the upset two weeks in a row as they catch 2 points at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game?

The Bills have won 4 of 5 regular-season games vs the Chiefs but lost three in a row at playoff time. Josh Allen shows every sign that he will force his team to win and he will use RB James Cook as a foil here to try to bully the KC defense.

KC has won 12 straight at home and 17 straight when favored. There are OVER trends with the Bills (12-5 as a dog and 5-1 as a road team) while UNDER trends (9-2 in January and 5 straight as home playoff chalk) follow the Chiefs.

Bills Chiefs AFC Championship Pick: Odds KC -2, Total 48.5 | Matchup Report

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The biggest edge here is Cook and Allen on the ground abusing an increasingly soft KC run defense. The Chiefs have been carved up in recent weeks but still managed to escape with victories.

This time, Allen can control the tempo, weary the defense and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field for long periods of time. The trick will be getting ahead far enough so that the Chiefs can’t pull a Houdini act at the end.

Clete Blakeman is the referee and his crew calls a lot of penalties (most in the NFL this year) which could be a problem if the Refs Love the Chiefs Conspiracy Theory holds up. But Mahomes in just 6-5 when this crew officiates.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The spread is 2 points, so if they win, they probably cover. And that’s what the Chiefs do – win. 12 in a row at home and 17 in a row as chalk.

Mahomes and his veteran cohorts know how to get it done and they are hungry to try a three-peat that no other team has pulled off. The ground game with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco can control the clock while protecting Mahomes from harm.

And there is enough receiving threat – with old faithful Travis Kelce in the middle – to put up points. The defense will blitz Allen whenever he drops back and always seems to have answers at critical moments in the game.