Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes dives into the end zone for an 8-yard touchdown against the Bills Micah Hyde. The Chiefs won 42-36 in overtime.Syndication Democrat And Chronicle

Buffalo Kansas City Pick, Bills & UNDER?

Patrick Mahomes has started 41 games for the Kansas City Chiefs and 41 times his team has been favored – but not in his 42nd start, here in Week 6 vs the Buffalo Bills.

Mahomes is 7-0-1 ATS overall when catching points in his career and the Chiefs have been a mean dog before that as well, as their 12-3-1 ATS over 16 games proves. But this is different. The Bills have the superior talent overall and scored 36 points or more both trips here last season.

These teams rank first and second in offensive efficiency. But Buffalo’s defense is among the league’s best, while the Chiefs are mediocre again. Plus, the taste of last year’s playoff loss here is surely something Buffalo wants out of its mouth.

There are lots of OVER trends as well and most people are hoping for a shootout, but that might be the wrong angle to take here.

Buffalo Kansas City Pick: Odds KC +2.5, Total 54 | Matchup Stats  

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Why Buffalo will cover the spread

KC’s pass defense is terrible and Buffalo can exploit it like few other teams. And with Josh Allen primed to scramble, it creates even more options for the Bills. We wonder if the Bills might not work the ground game early and often to try to keep Mahomes off the field and wear out the KC defense.

If that happens, the UNDER 54 could come into play. Buffalo is the superior team and can win easily here if the Chiefs defense doesn’t have a great day.

Why Kansas City will cover the spread

They almost always cover as underdogs and they have proven they can beat the Bills in the most difficult circumstances, giving up two go-ahead TDs in the final two minutes and still winning the AFC Divisional Playoff game in January.

KC almost always wins at home (26-5 SU) and almost always cover as underdogs. The Bills meanwhile have a weird trend developing where they lose in pre-bye-week games (past two seasons at Tennessee and Arizona). The Chiefs have a better shot if this is a shootout, but can that happen against the Bills defense?

Buffalo Kansas City Pick

The -2.5 is a tricky, almost baiting us to take the Chiefs. Let’s not take the bait. Buffalo is the better team and is motivated to cement their place as AFC favorites. Take Bills -2.5.

Kansas City Buffalo Anytime TD Prop Predictions

Coming soon after odds are posted

Kansas City Buffalo Betting Trends

Kansas City has never been a home dog when Patrick Mahomes is playing

Chiefs played 5 straight OVERs when regular season home dog since 2013, OVER is 9-2 Kansas City’s last 11 games as the underdog

Chiefs are 26-5 SU in their last 31 home games

Bills are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games played in Week 6.

Bills lost past 2 seasons before their bye week (@ Tennessee, @Arizona)

Chiefs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games when playing as the underdog.

 

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