Bills Chiefs Prediction Favors Under Bet

The Kansas City Chiefs are looking to make their third consecutive Super Bowl. But before even arriving at the eve of that event, they’ll have to deal with the conference’s top team in terms of DVOA and points differential.

Can the Buffalo Bills pull off the upset as a 2.5-points underdog at Arrowhead Stadium Sunday evening? They failed to do it a year ago, but Buffalo looks the part of a champion lately while the Chiefs have been mercurial.

Our friend Trend Dummy chickens out on the side bet, but points to all the OVER trends involving these teams. But is that a trap with strong running attacks and scrambling QBs on both rosters?

Let’s look at both sides.

Bills Chiefs Prediction, Odds: KC -2, Total 54 at DK | Matchup Report 

They’re simply the superior team on paper, they’re a lot healthier and an argument can be made that it’s their time. It’s incredibly hard to keep returning to the Super Bowl on a consistent basis, and the Chiefs lacked consistency and reliability for much of the 2021 campaign.

Buffalo is ready to take the next step after a dominant performance against the New England Patriots on wild-card weekend.

WHY THE CHIEFS WILL COVER

The law of averages could be stacked against the Bills, are who unlikely to be perfect for a second weekend in a row and may require that to upend Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid et al. Plus, the Chiefs are laying less than a field goal as a home team in January? Considering their track record, it’s easy to see why folks would grab the fave by default. Keep it simple, stupid.

Bills Chiefs Prediction

I’m not keeping it simple. Buffalo wins a close-to-the-vest, surprisingly low-scoring contest. In fact, focus on the under more than anything here.

Chiefs Bills Prop Picks – Anytime TD

Gabriel Davis +300 @ FanDuel

Davis has had four touchdowns since Week 14. He has played in 71% of the snaps in every game during that stretch.

Patrick Mahomes +360 @ FanDuel

He has four rushing touchdowns in his last nine playoff games.

Stefon Diggs 2+ +700 @ FanDuel

He is going to see a ton of targets.

Josh Allen OVER 275.5 AND Patrick Mahomes OVER 281.5 Passing Yards -114 (FanDuel)

Both quarterbacks are going to have huge days.

Bills Chiefs Betting Trends

Teams met three times in playoffs since 1992, all three went OVER

Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at Kansas City.

Bills have played OVER 8 straight games as underdogs

Chiefs have played 6 straight OVERS this season

Chiefs are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games vs the AFC East division.

OVER is 8-1 Kansas City’s last 9 games played in January.