Bills Rams Pick, LA Buffalo Prediction

The Buffalo Bills look to justify their preseason status as 6-1 Super Bowl 57 favorites when they visit the defending-champion LA Rams Thursday as small 2.5-point favorites in the 2022 season opener.

Buffalo  comes off a season that ended with a devastating loss in the AFC Divisional Round playoffs to the Kansas City Chiefs and they are seeking revenge. They come into this matchup riding an 11-3 SU mark in their past 14 games as road favorites.

Josh Allen’s MVP odds (+700) are the best in the NFL and as he enters his fifth season looking to get his team to the Super Bowl. The Rams meanwhile have won and covered five straight season openers and have won outright the only two games when they were home dogs over the past two seasons.

Bills Rams Odds: LA +2.5, Total 52.5 at Draft Kings 

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Boasting one of the best rosters in the NFL with Allen under center, the offense includes pass-catchers  All-Pro Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox, Gabe Davis. They will run a committee backfield which is also loaded with talent.

Head-to-head, the Bills have dominated the Rams with a 7-2 ATS edge in their last nine games and they are 9-1-against the number in their last 11 non-conference games. They have been a terrific Week 1 bet, covering five in a row and 12-5overall. Combine the Bills’ Week 1 success with the fact that the Rams are a mere 3-9 ATS in their last 12 bouts with AFC East teams, and you have a recipe for any early winning bet here.

Why the Rams can cover the spread

It would be a shame – and possibly a money losing idea – to sleep on the defending champions. Super Bowl winners are now 18-4 straight up in Week 1 the following season, so the Rams are far from being counted out in this matchup.

Considering a money line wager on the Rams as the underdogs at home is far from a stretch. The Rams, believe it or not, have actually improved their roster this offseason by adding key players like wide receiver Allen Robinson and linebacker Bobby Wagner; only enhancing their odds at repeating as Super Bowl Champions (+1100).

The Rams have seen their fair share of success throughout the month of September (13-2 in their last 15 games). The Rams have both won and covered in five consecutive season openers and their last two times as home underdogs- they won outright both times.

Bills Rams Pick

The Rams are sturdy in every area, and avoiding the Super Bowl hangover seems more likely with the Rams than it has for any team in recent memory. Los Angeles enjoysa perfect balance of offensive and defensive talent (eighth and ninth overall in the league respectively) and we pick them to cover the spread here.

Anytime TD Prop Picks

LA Rams: Darrell Henderson (+310 DraftKings)

Henderson had 20 carries for 114 yards and a touchdown against the Bills in 2020. In each of Henderson’s first full games of the season from the last two years he scored a touchdown in each game.

Buffalo Bills: Dawson Knox (+210 FanDuel)

Dawson Knox was tied for second in the NFL from the tight end position with nine in 2021. The Rams also gave up touchdowns to the tight end position five times in 2021 and allowed more than the league average in tight end targets.

Bills Rams Betting Trends

Teams have met 10 times since 1983, 9 games went OVER

Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games

OVER is 19-3 Buffalo’s last 22 games vs NFC West teams

Rams are 13-2 SU (10-4-1 ATS) in their last 15 games in September

Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against LA Rams

Bills are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games

Bills are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games played in Week 1.

UNDER is 7-3 Buffalo’s last 10 games played on a Thursday.

Bills 11-3 SU past 14 games as road favorite

UNDER is 17-6 LA Rams’ last 23 home games

Rams are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC East teams

Rams won and covered five straight season openers

Rams have been home dogs just twice the past two seasons and won outright both times (34-23 vs TB Sept. 26, 2021 and 20-17 vs Dallas Sept. 13, 2020).