A short week for a key AFC East matchup might favor the Buffalo Bills who arrive as small underdogs to the host Miami Dolphins.
Buffalo rallied to win impressively in Week 1 ad are healthier than the Fins, who have ruled or Raheem Mostert and might be without De’von Achane. The Tyreek Hill fake arrest situation might also mess with Miami.
As the trends report noted, Miami almost always wins at home, but almost never beats the Bills. There are lots of UNDER trends here, but that’s dangerous with two top-tier QBs slinging it around.
Buffalo @ Miami -2, Total 49 | Matchup Report
Why the Bills can cover the spread
Josh Allen played a bit of hero ball vs the Cardinals and forcing him to scramble will eat more clock and cause more trouble for the Dolphins. If that theory holds water, it means fewer possessions and therefore fewer series for the Dolphins offense at home where they have been terrific.
The Bills started slow but hit their stride in Week 1 and they own the Dolphins in recent years to the tune of 11-1 SU. Buffalo also dominates the division at 21-5 SU and has won and covered five straight in Week 2.
Why the Dolphins can cover the spread
While they have struggled vs the Bills, they have 20 of 24 recent home games SU and are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 divisional games. If they are missing a ground game, it might actually encourage more aerial assault which could see this game get out of hand for the home side.
Miami has covered 10 of 14 recent games when laying points and 26-4 SU as the favorites. They don’t need to win by very much here to also cover the nut.
Bills Dolphins Picks
While the Bills tend to play OVER as underdogs (10-2 past 12), there are plenty of UNDER trends associated with both teams here and we expect this one to stay UNDER 49.
Dolphins Bills Betting Trends
UNDER is 12-2 Miami’s last 14 games played on a Thursday.
Bills are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games against Miami.
OVER is 10-2 Buffalo’s last 12 games as the underdog.
UNDER is 12-4 past 16 Buffalo road games
Bills are 21-5 SU in their last 26 divisional games
Bills have won 5 straight Week 2 games (4-1 ATS)
Bills have played 6 straight Thursday UNDERs, 11-3 past 14
Dolphins are 20-4 SU in their last 24 games at home
UNDER is 13-5 past 18 Miami home games
Dolphins are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 divisional games
Dolphins are 10-3 ATS past 13 September games
Dolphins are 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS last 14 games as the favorite
Dolphins are 26-4 SU past 30 home games when favored
