Sep 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) looks on before the game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Miami Picks, Josh Allen Prop OVERs

With the AFC East title on the line, the Miami Dolphins are getting 2.5 points from the Buffalo Bills in Florida Sunday night.

Miami usually wins at home (11-1 SU past 12 Sunday home games) and usually covers in the division (17-5-1 ATS past 23 vs AFC East) and they face a hungry Bills team that usually beats them (10-1 SU past 11 vs Miami).

So what gives? Buffalo on a bumpy 4-game win streak or Miami off a beatdown vs Baltimore and with more players injured (Bradley Chubb gone)? Here’s our take on the regular-season finale.

Buffalo Miami Picks: Odds MIA +2.5, Total 48 | Matchup Report

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Why the Bills will cover the spread

They absolutely smashed the Dolphins 48-20 earlier this season, and Miami is 1-4 with an average scoring margin of 18-35 in games against teams that currently possess winning records.

Buffalo has owned the Dolphins the past 5-6 seasons and now catches them reeling with injuries on offense and defense. And Josh Allen keeps sounding like a guy who is going to get the job done, regardless of how his teammates are performing.

Why the Dolphins will cover the spread

They did take down the Cowboys in their last home game, so it’s arguably disrespectful that they’re a three-point underdog in Miami. Plus, the Bills have been pretty hot and cold for most of the 2023 season.

They cover divisional games at a healthy clip and only lay 2.5 points here against a team that barely beat the Patriots and Chargers the previous two weeks.

Buffalo Miami Picks

The Bills haven’t lost in regulation since the middle of November. They won’t be slipping up here, especially with Miami in much worse shape from a health standpoint. We play the Bills and lay the small number.

Buffalo Miami Prop Bets

Josh Allen OVER 243.5 passing yards at Draft Kings – he seems amped to perform and at some point Stefon Diggs will get loose. The Dolphins are vulnerable through the air and Allen should get this.

Josh Allen OVER 36.5 rushing yards at Draft Kings – same argument as above, the Fins will cover after him, he will not be denied and might be required to play Hero Ball a bit. That means scampering and yards after contact on his rushes.

Bills Dolphins Betting Trends

Dolphins 11-1 SU past 12 Sunday home games

Bills are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games against Miami

Dolphins are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 divisional games

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