Dec 6, 2021; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New England Patriots running back Damien Harris (37) breaks free past Buffalo Bills linebacker Tyrel Dodson (53) and defensive end A.J. Epenesa (57) to score a touchdown in the first quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Bills Pats Pick, Buffalo Moneyline

New England has long tormented Buffalo, beating them 31 times in 36 tries over two decades, which made that ugly Week 13 Pats win even tougher to stomach for Bills bettors.

Should Buffalo be able to get revenge as road underdogs in Week 16? They retain superior talent, but the Patriots have been the league’s top team over two months. Did the shine come off that last week when the Pats lost in Indy?

The Bills can (and will) pull even in the AFC East standings by taming their tormentors. But don’t expect Buffalo’s underdog OVER trend to continue as injuries and Covid protocol should keep this game under 40 points.

Bills Patriots Prediction: Odds NE -2.5, Total 43.5 at FanDuel | Matchup Report

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Why the Bills can cover the spread

Plainly, most believe Buffalo has the better team. And plainly their motivation – revenge and playoff positioning – is stronger. After losing the fun-sucking Week 13 matchup to the Pats, the Bills made a gallant rally to nearly beat Tampa Bay before smacking Carolina last week.

The weather forecast is pleasant, not the frosty windy conditions of Week 13. New England will need to do more than run the ball and with three WRs injured or on Covid (Nelson Agholor, N’Keal Harry and Kendrick Bourne), the Pats are scrounging for receivers. Buffalo had won nine straight divisional games before that clunker and they get back on the winning track here.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

Because they are 31-5 SU against the Bills over the years and because they are 7-1 ATS in their past eight games. Perhaps last week’s woeful first half at Indy was an extreme outlier.

Regardless, they come home for a divisional game in December, when they almost always win. They also catch Buffalo without WR Cole Beasley (Covid) and possibly WR Emmanuel Sanders (knee) so their defense should be able to focus on Buffalo’s ground attack.

Bills Patriots Prediction

Buffalo extends the Pats skid with a 23-17 win, making winners from dog bettors and moneyline bettors.

Patriots Bills Betting Trends

Patriots are 31-5 SU in their last 36 games against Buffalo

Patriots are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games played in Week 16.

Bills are 9-1 SU in their last 10 divisional games

Bills have played seven straight OVERs as underdogs

Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games


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