Jan 15, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary (26) runs for a touchdown during the second quarter of the AFC Wild Card playoff game against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Bills Patriots Prediction, Buffalo Covers TNF

In the Old Days, this matchup always ended in a Patriots victory. But these are the New Days and Buffalo arrives for the Week 13 Thursday Nighter as small road favorites.

Coach Bill Belichick is the best at short-week game plans and his Pats are 9-2 SU in their last 11 Thursdays. They have also been terrific at 7-3 ATS in their past 10 home games but usually lose when they are underdogs.

The betting line has moved t0 -4.5 in some places, so there are Patriots believers and backers out there.

Bills Patriots Prediction: Odds: NE +5, Total 44 | Matchup Stats

Why the Bills can cover the spread

New England’s wins have come against Jacoby Brissett, Jared Goff, Sam Ehlinger and Zach Wilson (twice). If none of those names show up next to Josh Allen in NFL stats or MVP odds, well, you know the reason.

Allen is an obvious difference maker and a problem for New England’s run stop, especially after he starts spreading the ball wide to Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The Pats are usually a nice dog, losing 6 of 7 SU when catching points and have lost four in a row as home underdogs too.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Pats haven’t beaten anyone good, but did hang with the Vikings a week ago. But are they ready for a contender like Buffalo?

The Bills defense ranks bottom third in key metrics since Week 9 and have been vulnerable on the ground, which is where the Pats do their best work. Grinding the clock and keeping Allen off the field, while fatiguing the Bills defense is the best chance at keeping this close.

Bills Patriots Prediction

It could be a low-scoring match and there are UNDER trends lurking here. But in a tight game, Buffalo can score red-zone TDs while the Pats may need to settle for FGs because of the quality of their QBs. We see the Bills winning by a TD or more.

Patriots Bills Anytime TD Picks

Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs Parlay +583 – Bet This at FanDuel 

Allen and Diggs are the Bills’ best options in the red zone. They both scored a touchdown last week against Detroit.

Hunter Henry +430 – Bet This at FanDuel 

Henry has at least four targets in two of his last three games. He scored a touchdown last week against the Vikings.

Isiaih McKenzie +380 – Bet This at FanDuel

His best games have come against the Pats and he will find openings with Diggs and Davis getting extra attention. Allen will find him for 6.

Stefon Diggs +130 – Bet This at FanDuel

So hard to keep him out of the end zone, he is almost a lock to get in there and +130 is great value for a lock.

Bills Patriots Betting Trends

Patriots are 9-2 SU in their last 11 Thursday home games

Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at home.

Patriots are 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as the underdog.

Bills have played 6 straight road UNDERs

Pats have lost 4 straight as regular-season home dogs

Bills have played 7 straight UNDERs as road favorites

Upcoming Games

Oct 5th, 8:15 PM

Chicago +4.5 -115

Washington -4.5 -115


Oct 8th, 9:30 AM

Jacksonville +4 -108

Buffalo -4 -108


Oct 8th, 1:00 PM

Houston +4.5 -110

Atlanta -4.5 -110


Oct 8th, 1:00 PM

Carolina +7.5 -112

Detroit -7.5 -112


Oct 8th, 1:00 PM

Tennessee -0.5 -111

Indianapolis +0.5 -111


Oct 8th, 1:00 PM

NY Giants +8.5 -111

Miami -8.5 -111


Oct 8th, 1:00 PM

New Orleans +1.5 -111

New England -1.5 -111


Oct 8th, 1:00 PM

Baltimore -1.5 -108

Pittsburgh +1.5 -108


Oct 8th, 4:05 PM

Cincinnati -9.5 -112

Arizona +9.5 -112


Oct 8th, 4:05 PM

Philadelphia -5.5 -111

LA Rams +5.5 -111


Oct 8th, 4:25 PM

NY Jets +3.5 -103

Denver -3.5 -103


Oct 8th, 4:25 PM

Kansas City -6.5 -122

Minnesota +6.5 -122


Oct 8th, 8:20 PM

Dallas +3 -115

San Francisco -3 -115


Oct 9th, 8:15 PM

Green Bay -1.5 -116

Las Vegas +1.5 -116


Oct 12th, 8:15 PM


Kansas City