In the Old Days, this matchup always ended in a Patriots victory. But these are the New Days and Buffalo arrives for the Week 13 Thursday Nighter as small road favorites.
Coach Bill Belichick is the best at short-week game plans and his Pats are 9-2 SU in their last 11 Thursdays. They have also been terrific at 7-3 ATS in their past 10 home games but usually lose when they are underdogs.
The betting line has moved t0 -4.5 in some places, so there are Patriots believers and backers out there.
Bills Patriots Prediction: Odds: NE +5, Total 44 | Matchup Stats
Why the Bills can cover the spread
New England’s wins have come against Jacoby Brissett, Jared Goff, Sam Ehlinger and Zach Wilson (twice). If none of those names show up next to Josh Allen in NFL stats or MVP odds, well, you know the reason.
Allen is an obvious difference maker and a problem for New England’s run stop, especially after he starts spreading the ball wide to Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The Pats are usually a nice dog, losing 6 of 7 SU when catching points and have lost four in a row as home underdogs too.
Why the Patriots can cover the spread
The Pats haven’t beaten anyone good, but did hang with the Vikings a week ago. But are they ready for a contender like Buffalo?
The Bills defense ranks bottom third in key metrics since Week 9 and have been vulnerable on the ground, which is where the Pats do their best work. Grinding the clock and keeping Allen off the field, while fatiguing the Bills defense is the best chance at keeping this close.
Bills Patriots Prediction
It could be a low-scoring match and there are UNDER trends lurking here. But in a tight game, Buffalo can score red-zone TDs while the Pats may need to settle for FGs because of the quality of their QBs. We see the Bills winning by a TD or more.
Patriots Bills Anytime TD Picks
Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs Parlay +583 – Bet This at FanDuel
Allen and Diggs are the Bills’ best options in the red zone. They both scored a touchdown last week against Detroit.
Hunter Henry +430 – Bet This at FanDuel
Henry has at least four targets in two of his last three games. He scored a touchdown last week against the Vikings.
Isiaih McKenzie +380 – Bet This at FanDuel
His best games have come against the Pats and he will find openings with Diggs and Davis getting extra attention. Allen will find him for 6.
Stefon Diggs +130 – Bet This at FanDuel
So hard to keep him out of the end zone, he is almost a lock to get in there and +130 is great value for a lock.
Bills Patriots Betting Trends
Patriots are 9-2 SU in their last 11 Thursday home games
Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
Patriots are 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as the underdog.
Bills have played 6 straight road UNDERs
Pats have lost 4 straight as regular-season home dogs
Bills have played 7 straight UNDERs as road favorites