Oct 3, 2021; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Cole Beasley (11) following the game against the Houston Texans at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Bills Saints Pick, Buffalo covers late game

Two weeks ago, bettors would have projected tis game UNDER as the Bills and Saints were two of the league’s best defensive teams.

But then each got gouged for 250+ rushing yards last week, so there are plenty of questions on a short week as New Orleans hosts Buffalo in the late Thanksgiving Day matchup. New Orleans catches points here and ride a 9-1-1 ATS streak as underdogs against a Buffalo team that usually wins as favorites.

Bills Saints Betting Pick, Odds: Saints +4.5 at FanDuel, Total 46 | Matchup Report

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Why the Bills can cover the spread

Two weeks ago, we were talking Super Bowl for the Bills but some uneven performances (blowout loss to Colts, crazy loss to Jaguars) have squelched that. But on paper this is a superior team and deserves the respect as road chalk here.

Saints workhorse Alvin Kamara is out again and check on the offensive line injury situation before laying much cash here. Buffalo is 25-6 SU in their last 31 games as the favorite, meaning they usually win when laying points, but don’t always cover the nut.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Buffalo offense has been sputtering and the Saints have a short week to forget about an ugly loss in Philly (their third in a row). Both QBs are banged up but Buffalo showed vulnerability to the run against the Colts and that can be exploited. That might mean more Taysom Hill under center.

New Orleans has covered 5 straight against the Bills and five straight on Thursdays. They are also 9-1-1 ATS in their past 11 games as an underdog, so they trend in that direction when catching points.

Bills Saints Betting Pick

If the injury report in New Orleans doesn’t improve, we expect late money on Buffalo which will push this line closer to 6 or 7 by kickoff. We like the Bills at -4.5 here in a ‘get-right’ game that could be another Saints blowout loss.

Prediction: Bills by 6 or more, bet up to -6

Saints Bills Betting Trends

Saints are 14-3 SU in their last 17 non-conference

Saints are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog.

Bills are 25-6 SU in their last 31 games as the favorite.

Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against New Orleans.

Bills have won 5 straight Week 12 games and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 seasons.

Saints have played 5 straight Thursdays OVER (8-1 past 9)

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