The New York Jets have a new Head Coach and new offensive play caller with a history of run-heavy attacks.
The Buffalo Bills have a banged-up roster with a porous run stop and a slumping star QB. Do these add up to a Week 6 Monday Night Football UNDER bet?
Maybe, there are UNDER trends galore, including five straight meetings of these AFC East foes along with the Jets going UNDER in 11 of 12 divisional games. But the Bills usually win (10-1 SU) when favored and they are small road chalk here.
Bills Jets MNF Picks: Odds NYJ +1, Total 40.5 | Matchup Report
Why the Bills can cover the spread
The Jets have scored just 26 points total in their past two losses and the theory goes that New York will commit to the run here. That should keep the scoring down which gives Superman Allen a chance to play some hero ball and grab a win.
They usually win when laying points and this line is tiny (-1 as of Sunday night). They usually win in the division (10-2 SU past 12) and the Jets have been lame dogs (2-8 ATS) and weak MNF competitors (3-10 SU past 13).
Why the Jets can cover the spread
Buffalo has been favored here the past two seasons and lost outright both times. And that was without Rodgers and his new offensive weapons.
With Todd Downing taking over play calling on offense and with Robert Saleh gone, the Jets can expect the new-coach bounce to take effect here in an important divisional tilt.
The Bills have been blitzed on the ground (nearly 250 yards vs the Ravens) and New York should try the same tactic.
Bills Jets MNF Picks
The Bills have failed to cover two straight road games and they bring the 25th rated road passing attack to the Jets top-rated home passing defense. The Jets play UNDER in the division, the Bills play UNDER on the road (15-4 past 19) and everything points UNDER here.
Bills Jets Betting Trends
UNDER is 11-1 NY Jets’ last 12 divisional games
Bills are 10-2 SU in their last 12 divisional games
Teams have played 5 straight UNDERs and 8 of past 11 meetings
UNDER is 15-4 Buffalo’s last 19 games on the road
Bills 8-1 SU past 9 as favorites
Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 6.
Jets are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games played on a Monday.
Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.