Nov 13, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs the ball against the Denver Broncos in the third quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Bills Eagles Pick, OVER, Allen Rushing Prop

Buffalo smacked a good New York Jets defense last week while Philadelphia was good and lucky to escape Kansas City with a victory.  They Super Bowl contenders clash in Philly with the home side favored by a field goal.

The Bills changed offensive coordinators and immediately got results vs the Jets. But they face another stout DL and run defense here, although the Eagles have ranked in the Bottom 5 in passing yards allowed, an opening for Josh Allen to exploit.

Philly continues to win ugly, at some point they will have that complete 60-minute game. They typically play OVER at home (15-6 run) while the Bills typically play OVER as underdogs (10-2 run). Is the total, climbing above 48 now, the best bet?

Bills Eagles Pick: Odds PHI -3, Total 48.5 | Matchup Report

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Why the Bills can cover the spread

Early in the season, the Bills looked like the best team. Then things went sideways. Was the Jets game their ‘straighten-out’ game for the playoff stretch?

Buffalo has the receivers to exploit a troubling and injured Eagles secondary but their OL will nee to hold up vs the pass rush to give Allen time. It could be check-down time early to get a rhythm going.

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

Philly has covered spreads all season, even when they didn’t deserve to. Here they lay just a field goal and they face a Buffalo team that had failed to cover six straight before last week.

The DL will be after Allen hard and he has been a turnover machine under pressure. The Bills are bottom third in road run defense and they can expect the Eagles to hit them early and often with running plays.

The Eagles are good and deep and primed finally for a complete game against a serious foe.

Bills Eagles Pick

The theory that Philly will pound the ball on the ground would point bettors UNDER 48.5. However, we see the ground game opening up aerial attacks on both sides and with two Superman-style QBs at the controls, we can easily see this game creeping into the 50s. We play OVER.

Eagles Bills Props

Dalton Kincaid +175 Anytime TD at Draft Kings watching the Eagles defend Tight Ends lately, especially in the red zone, should give bettors lots of confidence that Kincaid will score here in Week 12

Josh Allen OVER 26.5 rushing yards at Draft Kings – the pass rush is coming, Allen is fleeing. Expect him to get flushed from the pocket a lot and expect him to attempt Superman type of things.

Buffalo Philly Betting Trends

UNDER is 10-2 Buffalo’s last 12 road games

Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games

OVER is 15-6 Philadelphia’s last 21 games at home.

OVER is 9-1 Buffalo’s last 10 games as the underdog

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