Sep 26, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA;   Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) takes a snap in the first half of the game against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Bills Bucs Pick, Fade Bills On Road

The league’s top offense clashes with the league’s top pass defense in Week 14, with a surprisingly small point spread at play for the defending Super Bowl champs.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank first in offensive DVOA and 8th in defensive DVOA and lay 3.5 points at home to the Buffalo Bills, a team that has not covered a spread in Tampa is six tries since 1982.

The Bills have struggled against the Bucs, going 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight clashes. Meanwhile, the Bucs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games at home and are winners of three in a row. We cannot trust the Bills until they fix their offensive woes.

We like the Bucs -3.5 at FanDuel. 

Bills Buccaneers Betting Puck, Odds: TB -3.5, Total 54 at FanDuel | Matchup Report 

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Why the Bills will cover the spread

If a defense in the NFL can slow down the Bucs high-flying pass offense, it’s the Bills. They rank 1st in pass defense DVOA and allow the fewest passing yards per game by a wide margin. In their last three games, they only allowed 90 passing yards per game. 

The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road and motivated after a humbling home loss to New England on Monday night.

Why the Buccaneers will cover the spread

The Bucs offense is hitting on all cylinders right now, scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. The Bills defense has not been tested without Tre’Davious White yet, as last week, the Patriots only had three pass attempts. 

He was their best cornerback by a wide margin, so it will be interesting to see how the pass defense adapts to life without him. 

The Bucs are starting to get healthy on defense. Richard Sherman has been activated off IR, and Jamel Dean, Jason Pierre Paul, and Vita Vea are all expected to start on Sunday. 

Buffalo Tampa Bay Betting Pick

The Bills’ recent struggles worry me. Without White in the secondary, I cannot trust them to cover against one of the best teams in the league. 

Buccaneers -3.5

Bucs Bills Prop Picks

Josh Allen OVER 295.5 Passing Yards

The Bills run game has been nonexistent

Tom Brady OVER 308.5 Passing Yards

Both of these quarterbacks will eclipse 300 yards

Devin Singletary UNDER 10.5 Receiving Yards

I don’t expect him to be involved in the Bills game plan

Tampa Bay Buffalo Betting Trends

Bills are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games against Tampa Bay.

Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.

Bills are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games at Tampa Bay.

Bills played 6 straight OVERs when underdogs

Bucs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home.


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Upcoming Games

Aug 11th, 7:00 PM

NY Giants +2 -110

New England -2 -110


Aug 11th, 7:30 PM

Tennessee +2.5 -110

Baltimore -2.5 -110


Aug 12th, 6:00 PM

Atlanta +2.5 -115

Detroit -2.5 -115


Aug 12th, 7:00 PM

Cleveland +1.5 -110

Jacksonville -1.5 -110


Aug 12th, 7:30 PM

NY Jets +1.5 -115

Philadelphia -1.5 -115


Aug 12th, 7:30 PM

Arizona +2.5 -110

Cincinnati -2.5 -110


Aug 12th, 8:30 PM

Green Bay +3 -110

San Francisco -3 -110


Aug 13th, 1:00 PM

Kansas City +1 -110

Chicago -1 -110


Aug 13th, 1:00 PM

Carolina +2.5 -110

Washington -2.5 -110


Aug 13th, 4:00 PM

Indianapolis +3.5 -110

Buffalo -3.5 -110


Aug 13th, 7:00 PM

Seattle +3 -110

Pittsburgh -3 -110


Aug 13th, 7:30 PM

Miami -1 -110

Tampa Bay +1 -110


Aug 13th, 8:00 PM

New Orleans -1 -110

Houston +1 -110


Aug 13th, 9:00 PM

Dallas +2 -110

Denver -2 -110


Aug 13th, 10:00 PM

LA Rams +2.5 -110

LA Chargers -2.5 -110


Aug 14th, 4:25 PM

Minnesota +2.5 -110

Las Vegas -2.5 -110


Aug 18th, 8:00 PM