Aug 25, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA;  Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) on the sidelines in the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Panthers Bears Pick, Thursday Prop, Carolina +3.5

Talk about weird but potent motivation – the 2-7 Chicago Bears own the 1-7 Carolina Panthers fist-round draft pick so they really want to win the Week 10 Thursday Nighter.

And they will try to do it without Justin Fields, meaning Tyson Bagent gets the start again vs Bryce Young.

As one would expect, there aren’t many positive betting trends to pick from on either roster, although the Bears do tend to win as a favorite and they lay 3.5 points here.

Carolina @ Chicago -3.5, Total 38.5 at Draft Kings Sportsbook | Matchup Report

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Why the Panthers can cover the spread

Chicago cannot stop the pass so the Young to Adam Thielen combo should hit early and test the mettle of the host Bears. Carolina was poised to beat the Colts last week but a pair of pick-sixes torpedoed that result.

Thielen is on pace for one of the top receiving seasons in history and he alone might be enough to steal a win here. Even if they don’t, getting 3.5 points is a great value hook for bettors. Improving Carolina is an intriguing pick here.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago is motivated to sink the Panthers in the standings and Carolina usually fails to cover as a dog (1-5 ATS) and never covers within the NFC (1-5-1 ATS). Carolina has no pass rush, ranking last in sacks, which should mean some comfort for Bagent to operate.

Chicago has been pounding the ball on the ground lately with more than 150 YPG average over six games. It’s the kind of grind that can demoralize the Panthers and keep their offense pinned to the benches.

Panthers Bears Pick

The total keeps shrinking and this game could be 10-6 just as easy as it could be 35-31. The 3.5 points is a great spot for an improving Panthers team that faces a bad Bears squad without its QB.

Bears Panthers Props

Bryce Young OVER 229.5 passing yards at Draft Kings Sportsbook. The Bears rank 6th last in passing defense so expect the Panthers to test them early and often and for Young’s improving play to see an OVER here.

Panthers Bears Betting Trends

Bears are 1-15 SU in their last 16 conference games

Bears are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games in November.

Panthers are 2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS last 16 games on the road.

Panthers are 1-5-1 ATS, 1-6 SU in their last 7 conference games

Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as the underdog

Bears are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games as the favorite.

Bears are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played on a Thursday.

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