We got ourselves a barnburner to kick off the Thanksgiving slate of games. These teams have a combined record of 3-16-1 on the season. At least we have a small point spread to focus us as the miserable Detroit Lions host the Chicago Bears.
Editor Note: Justin Fields and others declared out, read the report.
The Lions are 1-15 SU in their previous 16 home games and 1-14 SU in their last 15 games against their division. The Bears haven’t been much better, as they are 2-9 ATS against their division in their last 11 games.
However, the Bears are 8-1 in their last nine games as the favorite and 4-1 in their previous five matches played on a Thursday. The spread is only 3.5 points, which seems low considering the talent discrepancy between these teams. Take the Bears -3.5 at FanDuel.
Bears Lions Prediction: Odds DET +3.5, Total 41.5 | Matchup Report
Why the Chicago bears will cover the spread
The Bears put up a good fight against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11 and showed some promise on offense with Andy Dalton in the second half. All signs point towards Dalton getting the start for the Bears on Thursday.
The Lions’ offense has no players the Bears defense should be afraid of. Their wide receiver core is currently made up of Kalif Raymond, Josh Reynolds, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, which is easily the worst wide receiver room in the NFL. On top of that, it looks like Tim Boyle will get his second straight start. Boyle finished his college career with 12 touchdowns and 26 interceptions.
Why the Detroit Lions will cover the spread
The Lions are surprisingly 6-4 ATS this season, and their defense has played pretty well over their last two games, only giving up an average of 14.5 points during that stretch.
The Bears’ offense has been out of sorts all season, and it looks like this team has given up on their head coach. If the Lions can hold David Montgomery in check and make the Bears one-dimensional, they have a chance to keep this within a field goal.
Bears Lions Prediction
I have a hard time seeing this Lions offense led by Tim Boyle put up more than seven points. The Bears’ defense will dominate this game.
Chicago Detroit Betting Trends
Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 divisional games
Bears played OVER 5 straight games as road favorites
Lions are 1-15 SU in their last 16 home games
Lions are 1-14 SU in their last 15 divisional games
Bears are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played on a Thursday.
Bears are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing as the favorite.
Lions are 2-18 SU in their last 20 games played in week 12 (3-14 ATS past 17)