Dec 4, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) looks to pass in the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

Bears Commanders Pick, Fields Prop, Trends

Hands up everyone who trusts Washington – and its defense which has given up at least 30 PPG the past three weeks – with a 6-pint spread against the Chicago Bears?

That’s what I thought, hence the reason a ton of heavy Chicago Bears money has been flooding sportsbooks across America for the Week 5 Thursday Nighter.

Chicago has lost 14 straight games and might make it 15 here. But they have won 5 of 7 Thursday Nighters and the Commanders have been a disaster historically as big home favorites (3-16 ATS at -6 or greater).

Bears Commanders Pick: Odds WSH -6, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

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Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago will win, eventually, and they get a 6-point cushion here for bettors. Justin Fields has been a disaster but showed signs of life last week vs the Broncos, even if they blew the lead and the game.

The Commanders defense has been atrocious and they come off an encouraging OT loss performance vs the Eagles.

Why the Commanders can cover the spread

Six points is a lot but the Bears have repeatedly shown an ability to fall apart. With a short week to prepare, the home team looks like a safe bet to win, and they are 8-2-1 SU in their past 11 games as favorites.

So many trends point to a Bears loss and failure to cover – 1-10-1 ATS past 12, 3-12 ATS past 15 vs Washington, 2-9 ATS on the road, 1-9 ATS in conference games, the list goes on and on.

Bears Commanders Pick

Lot of money rolled in midweek on the Bears, who were as high as +7 at some shops but sat at +6 at Draft Kings Wednesday. That indicates the professional bettors are taking the points and they are usually smarter than the rest of us.

Bears Commanders Prop Picks

Brian Robinson Anytime TD -115 – The Bears don’t stop the run and Robinson will get the red-zone chances here. This is easy money.

Justin Fields OVER 46.5 rushing yards – Enough of this shit, Fields will get flushed out by the Commanders pass rush and have a big day scrambling. Its what he does.

Washington Chicago Betting Trends

Commanders 3-16 ATS past 19 games as home chalk of 6 or more points since November 2005

UNDER is 14-2 Washington’s last 16 games at home.

UNDER is 12-2 Washington’s last 14 games played in Week 5.

Bears lost 14 straight games SU and 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12

OVER is 12-3 Chicago’s last 15 games.

Bears are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs Washington.

Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on the road

Bears are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs NFC teams

Bears are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played on a Thursday, five games went UNDER

Bears are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 games as the underdog.

OVER is 9-3 Washington’s last 12 games on a Thursday.

Commanders are 8-2-1 SU in their last 11 games as the favorite

Upcoming Games

Dec 7th, 8:15 PM

New England +6.5 -110

Pittsburgh -6.5 -110


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Detroit -5.5 -116

Chicago +5.5 -116


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Carolina +6.5 -103

New Orleans -6.5 -103


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Tampa Bay +2.5 -106

Atlanta -2.5 -106


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

LA Rams +6.5 -118

Baltimore -6.5 -118


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Indianapolis -0.5 -110

Cincinnati +0.5 -110


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Jacksonville -2.5 -115

Cleveland +2.5 -115


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Houston -5.5 -115

NY Jets +5.5 -115


Dec 10th, 4:05 PM

Minnesota +0.5 -115

Las Vegas -0.5 -115


Dec 10th, 4:05 PM

Seattle +10.5 -108

San Francisco -10.5 -108


Dec 10th, 4:25 PM

Buffalo +2.5 -125

Kansas City -2.5 -125


Dec 10th, 4:25 PM

Denver +3.5 +103

LA Chargers -3.5 +103


Dec 10th, 8:20 PM

Philadelphia +1.5 -110

Dallas -1.5 -110


Dec 11th, 8:15 PM

Tennessee +11.5 -111

Miami -11.5 -111


Dec 11th, 8:15 PM

Green Bay -5.5 -102

NY Giants +5.5 -102


Dec 14th, 8:15 PM

LA Chargers

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