Bengals Bills Playoff Pick, UNDER best bet?

The spread has continued to inch upwards as Cincinnati and its beleaguered offensive line visits Buffalo in the AFC Divisional Playoff.

Both teams limped through the Wild Card round and both teams have plenty of positive trends in play here. Buffalo is 14-1 SU as home playoff chalk and 12-1 SU in their past 13 at home, while the Bengals are 12-2 ATS on the road, 20-5 ATS overall and 8-0 ATS as underdogs.

So is 5.5 points too much to lay on the Bills? Will the number climb to -6 before kickoff? The weather is forecast in low 30s with a chance of snow – in others words a nice Buffalo day in January so that should not be a factor.

Bengals Bills Playoff Pick: BUF -5.5, Total 49.5 | Matchup Stats  

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Cincy has been terrific most of the season and last week’s stinker was an outlier. Joe Burrow has the best offensive weapons of any QB and he will need to get the ball to them quickly with his OL in tatters again. But remember that line was terrible last year and Cincy kept winning as underdogs.

They have covered 8 in a row when catching points, have owned the AFC (15-4 ATC) and dominated on the road (12-2 ATS). They could easily win outright here so the points are a bonus, especially if turnover-prone Josh Allen gives them extra possessions.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo almost never loses at home and their mark as a playoff home favorite is astonishing at 14-1 SU. But the points….

The defense needs to harass Burrow into hurried throws and some sacks to get the Bengals offense off the field. Cincy scores less as a road team, with fewer rushing and passing yards than at home, which accounts for games going UNDER (they have played UNDER in six straight as playoff dogs).

Bengals Bills Playoff Pick

The point spread is in that awkward zone where we are passing on a side bet, but we like the UNDER 49.5. Both offenses are terrific but both defenses will be focused on keeping their opponents off the field. We would better an OVER punts prop and see this one going UNDER.

Bills Bengals Anytime TD Props

Tyler Boyd +310

Boyd played almost all of the snaps in the wild-card round. Buffalo gave up the third most touchdowns to wide receivers this season.

Cole Beasley +500

Beasley got a ton of reps, playing in 42% of the snaps with a TD in his return to Buffalo last week.

Bengals Bills Betting Trends

Bills are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games at home.

Bills are 14-1 SU, 9-5-1 ATS past 15 games as playoff chalk since 1989

Bengals played 6 straight playoff UNDER when underdogs

Bengals are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games

Bengals are 20-5 ATS in their last 25 games

Bengals are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.

Bengals are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 conference games

Bengals have covered 8 straight as underdogs

UNDER is 16-5 Cincinnati’s last 21 games as the underdog.