Jan 27, 2020; Miami Beach, Florida; USA; General overall view of  Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills helmets at the NFL Experience at the Miami Beach Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Bengals Browns Picks, Fade Cincy on MNF

Surprisingly, the Week 8 Monday line did not move when Cincinnati star WR Ja’Marr Chase would not join his teammates in Cleveland due to a hip injury. The Bengals  remain 3-point favorites, despite the fact they have lost four straight and 7 of 8 to the Browns.

And Cleveland may have the perfect roster to pull the upset. Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett present a ferocious pass rush, which continues to be Cincy’s weakness and the Browns running game can abuse the soft Bengals run defense.

All the trends (see the list below) point to Cincinnati and Cleveland almost always loses as underdogs (70 of their past 82 games when catching points).

Bengals Browns Pick: Odds CLE +3, Total 45 | Matchup Stats

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Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Joe Burrow continues to prove himself worthy of elevation to elite QB status, but he is missing his favorite target here. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd have proven their big-play abilities, but the offensive line needs to give Burrow a bit of time.

The Bengals have covered 5 straight and are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games. They are also on a 10-1 ATS run within the conference and 7-1 ATS in their past 8 trips here to Cleveland.

The list of negative Cleveland stretches halfway down the page, including long-term disastrous numbers before a bye week, within the division, on Monday Nights and in Week 8. And recently, they have lost five in a row as regular-season home dogs.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

No Ja’Marr Chase can be a big problem for Cincy unless someone else steps up and the Bengals establish the run. They have beaten Cincy four straight, so they know how to beat their division rivals, even if they can’t seem to beat anyone else.

Their style of play seems to align perfectly with Cincy weaknesses – aggressive D line pursuit and strong run game execution. And while history is no guarantee of future results, they face a Cincy team that has lost 10 of its past 11 Monday Night road games.

Bengals Browns Betting Picks

The Browns seem to have Cincy’s number lately and the Bengals have been a longtime fade bet on MNF. Cleveland can stymie the Bengals as they adjust to life without Chase and cover this number at home. We bet against a stack of betting trends that point to a Cleveland loss here.

Cleveland Cincinnati Prop Picks

Joe Mixon 2+ Anytime TD +500

The Browns have given up the second most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs. Without Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals should force the run in the red zone.

Harrison Bryant +320

With David Njoku out, Bryant slots on the top tight end on the Browns. The odds at +320 is worth the swing.

Browns Bengals Betting Trends

Browns have won 12 of their past 82 games as underdogs

Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games

Bengals are 1-11 SU in their last 12 Monday Night road games

Bengals have covered 5 straight and are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games.

Bengals are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against Cleveland, including 7-1 ATS on the road

Bengals are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games on the road.

Browns are 1-7 SU and ATS past 8 seasons before a bye week

Browns are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games at home.

Browns are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 divisional games

Browns lost and failed to cover past 7 Week 8 games

Browns 1-7 SU past 8 Monday Night games

Browns lost past 5 games as regular-season home dogs

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