Bengals Cowboys Picks, MNF Dog and UNDER?

Cincinnati has allowed 34 + points in four of their last five games and Dallas regularly gets pulverized at home – does this make the Week 14 Monday Nighter an easy OVER bet or a square trap?

And what about the 5,5-point dog number on Dallas? They are 13-3 SU in their past 16 December games but just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Monday Night Football home games?

Cincinnati is horrible in MNF road games (2-12 SU) but dominates non-conference play (11-2 SU). So many trends, so much confusion, so much offense, so little defense.

Bengals Cowboys Picks: Odds DAL +5.5, Total 49.5 | Matchup Report

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

It’s a lot to ask of a 4-8 road team to cover a big spread, but then again Dallas has gotten smashed at home regularly.

Dallas’ home run defense is the worst in the league, so that should be an area to exploit with Chase Brown and Khalil Herbert. That might mean the scoring isn’t as high as many pundits believe.

Cincy has been a solid road bet over recent years at 24-10 ATS, while Dallas is just 3-12 ATS in 15 games as a dog and never covers at home lately.

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Dallas won twice in six days to potentially save their season including an upset of Washington. Is that Fool’s Gold or an indicator that they can win here?

The Cowboys have won 5 straight vs the Bengals dating back several seasons and 7 of 8 here head-to-head going back 25 years. Cincy’s defense is a joke and Cooper Rush is playing better and now Dallas has motivation here at home in Prime Time.

Bengals Cowboys Picks

Just about everyone is on the OVER here, but pay attention – the total is inching downwards, not upwards (to 49.5 as of Saturday). That means some smart money is trending UNDER. Betting against the Cowboys at home used to be heresy but they are just 1-7 ATS at home. We play dog and UNDER here.

Dallas Cincinnati Betting Trends

Cowboys are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Monday home games.

Cowboys are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games played in December.

Bengals are 2-12 SU in their last 14 Monday road games

Bengals are 11-2 SU in their last 13 non-conference games

OVER in 16 of Cincinnati’s last 21 games.

Cowboys have won 5 straight vs Cincy, 7-1 SU past 8 at home to Cincy

Bengals are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games on the road.

Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at home, OVER is 16-5 past 21 at home

Cowboys are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as the underdog.