Bengals Chiefs AFC Pick, UNDER Best Bet?

The Bengals and Chiefs run it back in the AFC title game with the point spread dancing around a pick’em as Patrick Mahomes appears capable of dancing around on his gimpy ankle.

Cincinnati was a 7-point dog when it won here last season but will catch a single point this time as they take their awesome road mark and money-making underdog mark (17-5 ATS past 22 games as dogs) to Kansas City.

There is firepower galore on both sides and stingy aggressive defenses on both sides. This game could easily plunge under the total and could easily come down to a last-second field goal.

Bengals Chiefs AFC Pick: Odds KC +1, Total 47.5 | Matchup Stats

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Because that’s all they do. In their last 26 games, they have covered 21 times. Joe Burrow is 3-0 vs Mahomes and the Bengals are 7-1 SU in eight recent meetings with the Chiefs.

Cincy has also covered 9 in a row as underdogs ad sit 12-2 ATS in their past 14 games catching points. Throw in Burrow’s unflappable confidence and his trio of talented receivers, plus a sudden ground game that abused Buffalo last week and you have a team that can beat anyone.

They have done it before here, the offensive line held up against the Bills and they are ready to reward their backers here in the AFC Championship Game.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Because they usually win as favorites (12-2 SU) and they are favored (as of Thursday night at FanDuel which is offering a No Sweat First Bet up to $3,000 this week!!!) by a single point.

Even with Mahomes nursing a sore ankle, he seems hell-bet on willing the Chiefs back to the Super Bowl. Expect him to rely heavily on Trevis Kelce if his mobility is diminished at all.

Bengals Chiefs AFC Pick

There are lots of historical UNDER trends here and the recent form of each team suggests ball control and ground attack should be a factor on both sides. Past 10 Cincy playoff games, 9 UNDERS. Past 14 meetings of these teams, 11 UNDERS. Bengals as underdogs past 7 games, 7 UNDERs.

You see where we are going here….

Chiefs Bengals Anytime TD Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster +280

Smith-Schuster has played over 80% of the snaps in three of his last five games. The Bengals are very good against tight ends, opening the door for other Chiefs players to score.

Hayden Hurst +300

The Chiefs have been awful against tight ends this season, allowing the third most touchdowns.

Bengals Chiefs Betting Trends

UNDER is 9-1 past 10 Cincinnati playoff games

Chiefs are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games as the favorite

Bengals are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games.

Bengals are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against Kansas City.

UNDER is 11-3 past 14 meetings of Chiefs and Cincy

Bengals are 19-5-1 ATS in their last 25 games vs AFC West teams

Chiefs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 divisional games

If Bengals close as underdogs, they have covered 9 straight and 17-5 ATS past 22 times when catching points.

Bengals have played 7 straight UNDERs when underdog and 12-2 ATS