Bengals Chiefs Prediction, AFC Title Game Pick

Editor Note: Tyrann Mathieu activated for today’s game.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the NFL’s best team over the last four years, and this might be the best version of that best team. The Chiefs have won eight games in a row at home, covering six straight, and this home heater has translated to the playoffs, as they have won seven straight home playoff games, with a 6-1 ATS record. 

However, let’s not forget the Cincinnati Bengals took down the Chiefs just four weeks ago. The Bengals have been very kind to bettors over the last couple of months, covering six straight and rolling to a 7-1 ATS run in their previous eight road games.

The Bengals defense has held two solid offenses in the Raiders and Titans to under 20 points. This defense can give Patrick Mahomes some problems, so we like the Bengals +7 at FanDuel. 

Bengals Chiefs Prediction, Odds: KC -7, Total 54 | Matchup Report 

We all watched Josh Allen go toe to toe with Mahomes last week and the KC pivot has another tough test with Joe Burrow coming to town. Burrow (sore knee but has practised this week)was rated as PFFs top quarterback and has been third in EPA per play since Week 7. He doesn’t have the arm strength that Mahomes and Allen have, but he can make all the “video game” style plays that we saw last week. 

Try slowing down Ja’Marr Chase. I dare you. He has at least 109 receiving yards in four of his last five games, averaging 128.4 yards per game during that stretch, including a three-touchdown 266 yard game against the Chiefs four weeks ago. The fact Tyrann Mathieu remains in concussion protocol as of Thursday is also bad news for KC’s defense generally and its secondary specifically.

Bengals bettors have enjoyed their recent play on the road (7-1 ATS), while Cincy is also 5-1 SU in their last six games against Kansas City. They finished 12-7 ATS this season and can cover here too. 

Why the Chiefs will cover the spread

Patrick Mahomes? Duh. What a performance he had last week. Many people believe he hasn’t been as good this season, which is flat-out wrong. He led the league in EPA per play and has an 18-2 TD-INT ratio since Week 15. He is playing the best football of his career. 

The secondary receivers for the Chiefs are starting to step up. This has not been the Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce show like we are accustomed to. Byron Pringle and Mecole Hardman have combined for four touchdowns in the two playoff games this season. 

The Chiefs 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS last 10 games as the favorite and have won seven straight home playoff games, failing to cover just once. 

Bengals Chiefs Prediction

A seven-point spread in a championship game is far too high. Yes, the Chiefs look unstoppable right now but don’t count out this Bengals team. They will keep this game close. 

Bengals +7

Kansas City Cincinnati Prop Picks

Read more on Deeg’s Anytime TD Scorer Prop Picks article.

C.J. Uzomah +230 (DraftKings – bet $5, get $280 in FREE BETS!)

Travis Kelce 2+ +400 (DraftKings – bet $5, get $280 in FREE BETS!)

Joe Burrow +550 (DraftKings – bet $5, get $280 in FREE BETS!)

Noah Gray +1200 (DraftKings )

Chiefs Bengals Betting Trends

Chiefs won 7 straight playoff home games, 6-1 ATS

UNDER is 9-2 Cincinnati’s last 11 games played in January.

UNDER is 9-3 Cincinnati’s last 12 games against Kansas City.

Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.

Chiefs won 8 in a row at home, covered past 6.

Chiefs 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS last 10 games as the favorite