Nov 1, 2020; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals running back Giovani Bernard (25) runs with the ball against the Tennessee Titans in the first half at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Bengals Titans Pick, Henry Return Decides It

Derrick Henry, A.J Brown, and Julio Jones will all be on the same field for the Tennessee Titans for the first time since Week 7. They beat the Chiefs 27-3 in that game and were ninth in EPA per play on offense through seven weeks compared to 16th the rest of the way.

Their offense just hasn’t been the same without them on the field together, and they still managed to get the first seed in the AFC. The Titans are hot heading into the playoffs, winning four of their last five games, and got an extra week of rest, while the Cincinnati Bengals had to play a grudge match against the Las Vegas Raiders.

This year, the Titans won 12 games by an average margin of 3.8 points, so with the spread sitting at only 3.5 at FanDuel, we are riding with Titans to win and cover. 

Bengals Titans Betting Pick, Odds: TEN -3.5, Total 47 | Matchup Stats 

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Why the Bengals will cover the spread

There are a lot of positive trends going the Bengals way. They have covered five straight games, are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Tennessee, and 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games on the road.

Remember when people thought Ja’Marr Chase was a bust in the preseason because he had a couple of drops? That was fun. In his last four games, Chase has 28 catches for 533 yards and three touchdowns, while the Titans finished 25th in passing yards allowed. 

PFF had Joe Burrow as their top-ranked quarterback and has proven he can carry this franchise. The Bengals won their first playoff game since 1991 last week, which means the monkey is finally off their back. 

Why the Titans will cover the spread

It’s been a while since we have seen Henry, so let’s recap how dominant he was before going down with an injury. He had 937 rushing yards in eight games and was on pace to break the all-time rushing yards record for a single season. The Titans are 17-8 over the last two seasons with Henry in the lineup. 

The Titans’ defense gives up its fair share of passing yards, but they have been an efficient unit this season. They are 10th in EPA per play on defense and finished sixth in points per game allowed. 

Bengals Titans Betting Pick

The Bengals have been a fun team, but their run will come to an end on Saturday. The Titans are 11-2 with A.J Brown on the field, and when you add Henry and Jones to this offense, they will comfortably win by a touchdown. 

Titans -3.5

Titans Bengals Prop Picks – Anytime TD Scorer

Julio Jones +275

He had nine targets and a touchdown last week.

Tyler Boyd +275

He has touchdowns in three straight games.

Geoff Swaim +500

Swaim has played at least 73% of the snaps in five of his last six games and had a touchdown two weeks ago. This is great value.

Ryan Tannehill OVER 238.5 Passing Yards -113 (FanDuel)

Derrick Henry back will open up the passing game.

Ja’Marr Chase UNDER 77.5 Receiving Yards -106 (FanDuel)

The Titans will make somebody else beat them.

Cincinnati Tennessee Playoff Betting Trends

Bengals have covered 5 straight overall

Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Tennessee.

Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.

7 of past 8 meetings here played OVER the total

Bengals 7-1 ATS past 8 conference games

Titans are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs AFC North division

Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday home games

Bengals have never won as playoff underdogs since 1980 (0-8 SU, 1-6-1 ATS)

UNDER is 8-2 Tennessee playoff games since 2004


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