The Kansas City Chiefs have no business being favorites in this game. Last week’s win was crucial for getting back on track, but they are still 4-16-1 ATS in their previous 21 games and are 3-7 ATS this season.
They barely snuck out wins against the Giants in Week 8 and the Packers without Aaron Rodgers in Week 9.
The Dallas Cowboys, on the other hand, have been a bettors’ dream, as they are 8-1 ATS this season and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games. The Cowboys are sitting at third in overall team DVOA, while the Chiefs are 14th. They appear to be the better football team right now and will win this game outright, so look at Cowboys money line, which is sitting at +120 at FanDuel.
Why the Dallas Cowboys will cover the spread
After a big loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 9, the Cowboys came right back and proved they are in the upper echelon of the NFC by beating the Atlanta Falcons 43-3. They dominated from beginning to end and will face another team with a poor defense.
The Falcons defense ranks 31st in DVOA, so the Cowboys’ 4th ranked DVOA offense was able to dominate. Well, the Chiefs’ defense isn’t much better, ranking 30th.
The Cowboys’ defense has been one of the biggest surprises of the NFL season as they are 4th in EPA per play and 4th in takeaways. Patrick Mahomes is tied for second in the NFL in interceptions, so watch out for Trevon Diggs in the game, as he is the type of player to cause Mahomes all sorts of problems.
Why the Kansas City Chiefs will cover the spread
The Chiefs offense has been performing at a high level all season; however, their turnover numbers have swayed people to think it has been mediocre. They are still second in the NFL in EPA per play and 10th in points per game.
Oh, and they still have Mahomes. On Monday Night Football, he looked like his old self, throwing for over 400 yards and five touchdowns.
Cowboys Chiefs Betting Pick
This spread is a perfect example of recency bias. All year, the Cowboys have been the better football team and are 2.5 point underdogs against a team with a far worse record. Don’t overthink this and take Cowboys’ Moneyline.
Cowboys +2.5 and ML
Kansas City Dallas Anytime TD Props
Dalton Schultz OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards
With no Amari Cooper, Dak will be calling Schultz’s name more.
Dak Prescott OVER 291.5 Passing Yards
Both quarterbacks will eclipse 300 yards.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 18.5 Rushing Yards
He has hit this mark in six of his ten games this season.
Chiefs Cowboys Betting Trends
Chiefs are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games against an opponent in the NFC.
Chiefs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games at home.
Cowboys are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games played in Week 11.
Cowboys are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games.
Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
Cowboys are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games played in week 11.
Cowboys are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games when playing as the underdog
Chiefs are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games