Cowboys Dolphins Picks, Mostert OVER, Pollard TD

Bettors have been piling money on the Dallas Cowboys as they visit Miami in Week 16, but can this road-patsy team be trusted with even a 1-point spread?

The line has moved to -1 Dolphins as of Friday at Draft Kings Sportsbook despite their 0-5 ATS streak as underdogs and they 27- ATS run in Sunday road games.

Miami almost always wins at home (18-3 SU) and covers at a healthy rate while the Cowboys have been a shit show on the road. However, the Cowboys have bounced back nicely off losses the past few years as their 12-1 ATS run coming off a loss will prove.

Both teams have plenty of motivation, so that is not a handicapping factor and the weather should be toasty, just the way both teams like it.

Cowboys Dolphins Picks: Odds MIA -1, Total 50 | Matchup Report

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Check that 12-1 ATS mark rebounding from losses. They also happen to have the superior talent, but that hasn’t translated as well away from home.

Dak Prescott was an MVP favorite last week, then he bombed in Buffalo. He should be motivated to prove that game was an aberration.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dallas secondary wasn’t tested much against Buffalo because the Bills killed them on the ground. Miami has a similar talent with their RBs so they will try to copy that blueprint.

And whether that succeeds or not, they have weapons all around Tua Tagovailoa to exploit the Dallas pass defense. The Cowboys have allowed 30+ points twice in recent weeks and the Dolphins tend to blow out teams at home.

Cowboys Dolphins Picks

The Dallas pass rush scares our wallet, but the Dolphins just watched the Bills blueprint for handling that – pound the rick outside. The Cowboys keep slipping up on the road and we see that trend continuing and play the home team on the moneyline.

Cowboys Dolphins Prop Bets

Raheem Mostert OVER 57.5 rushing yards at Draft Kings – Miami should be pushing the ground game and Mostert + Achane as a terrific 1-2 punch. Mostert gets some heavy lifting here and can gain chunks running off-tackle.

Tony Pollard +100 Anytime TD Scorer at Draft Kings – Dallas also needs to establish the ground game and Pollard will get chances in the red zone and he is also capable of scampering in from distance.

Dolphins Cowboys Betting Trends

Dolphins are 18-3 SU, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games at home

Cowboys are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games played in December

UNDER is 8-2 past 10 meetings over the years

UNDER is 8-3 Dallas’ last 11 games on the road.

Cowboys 0-5 ATS past five games as underdogs

Cowboys 2-7 ATS past 9 Sunday road games