Editor Note: Dak Prescott is OUT and the line has moved to -3 for the Vikings.
Both the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings are coming off bye weeks ahead of a critical Week 8 Sunday Night Football matchup in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
And while the Cowboys have been the much better team thus far in 2021, quarterback Dak Prescott is dealing with a calf injury headed into this matchup. Throw in that Minnesota should be desperate to make a statement with a 3-3 record at home and it’s easy to understand why Dallas is laying just 2.5 points in this spot.
Still, more than 80 percent of the public is backing the popular Cowboys in what is close to a pick’em. Should you join ‘em or fade ‘em?
WHY THE COWBOYS WILL COVER
The league’s highest-scoring team is favored by less than a field goal on extra rest. That would seem to be pretty generous. Sure, Prescott is less than 100 percent and this is a tough, rested opponent on the road, but there’s a chance both La’el Collins and Michael Gallup return from injuries for this one as well.
They’ve won five straight games, with the last four coming by six or more points. There’s little reason to believe they’ll slip up now.
WHY THE VIKINGS WILL COVER
Yet the Cowboys are famous for slipping up, and the home squad really needs this one. Minnesota is a top-12 team in terms of DVOA and Kirk Cousins is playing the best football of his career. It wouldn’t be shocking at all if the Cowboys laid an egg or if the well-coached, experienced Vikings simply outplayed them in front of their home crowd and a national audience.
COWBOYS VIKINGS BETTING PICK
Minnesota was lucky to get past two bad teams ahead of its Week 5 bye. The Cowboys are playing on a completely different level right now, and you’d have to believe the Vikes are likely to win straight-up to take them with this line. Dallas has to be the pick.
Minnesota Dallas Betting Trends
Vikings are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against Dallas.
OVER is 10-2 Dallas’ last 12 games vs NFC North division.
Cowboys covered 6 straight and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.
Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at Minnesota.
Vikings are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games
Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games at home.