Jun 3, 2021; Frisco, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys middle linebacker Jaylon Smith (9) goes through drills during voluntary Organized Team Activities at the Star Training Facility in Frisco, Texas. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Cowboys Saints Pick, Take Home Dogs?

The Dallas Cowboys are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games and are 8-3 ATS overall this season, so bettors will instantly gravitate towards America’s team. But the numbers in the Week 13 Thursday Nighter say ‘Not so fast.’ 

They visit the New Orleans Saints, who have been dominant as the underdog, going 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 of those games. They have also dominated the Cowboys at home over the years.

Taysom Hill will start at quarterback for the Saints, adding juice to an offense that desperately needs it. He will be tough to game plan for considering his running ability and lack of tape on this style of Saints offense. Take the home underdog +4.5 at FanDuel.

Cowboys Saints Betting Pick, Odds: Saints +4.5, Total 47.5 | Matchup Report 

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Why the Cowboys will cover the spread

The Cowboys are starting to get healthy on offense. CeeDee Lamb will play after failing to pass concussion protocols last Thursday, and Tyron Smith and Ezekiel Elliot were full participants in practice all week. 

When the Cowboys are at full strength, they have one of the best offenses in the NFL. Despite their recent struggles, they are still 7th in offensive DVOA and 10th in EPA per play. 

The Cowboys’ defense has tons of speed on defense to keep up with Taysom Hill at quarterback. The scheme will be tricky to figure out early, but having Micah Parsons helps, as he is Pro Football Focus’s 4th ranked linebacker. 

Why the Saints will cover the spread

The Saints are finally making a change at quarterback after Trevor Siemian ranked 22nd in EPA per play out of all quarterbacks over the last two weeks. 

The Saints’ defense is built to stop an offense like the Cowboys. They are first in rush defense DVOA, which will help slow down Elliot and Tony Pollard while having Marshon Lattimore, who can follow CeeDee Lamb and take him out of the game. 

Historically, the Saints have played the Cowboys well, as the Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against the Saints. Dallas has also lost 5 straight Thursday Nighters.

Cowboys Saints Betting Pick

The Cowboys are the better team, but the Saints are fighting for their playoff lives. Dallas wins this game by a field goal.

Saints +4.5

Dallas New Orleans Props – Anytime TD Picks

Dalton Schultz +180 at FanDuel

The Saints’ defense got killed by Dawson Knox last week.

Taysom Hill +190 at FanDuel

This one is a no-brainer. Whenever he starts at quarterback, Sean Payton uses him heavily in the run game.

Ezekiel Elliot 2+ +850 at FanDuel

Let’s take a swing. Elliot gets all the goal-line touches.

Saints Cowboys Betting Trends

UNDER is 9-2 New Orleans’ last 11 games played on a Thursday.

Saints are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games against Dallas.

Cowboys are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games

Cowboys 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games at New Orleans.

Cowboys have lost 5 straight Thursday games (1-4 ATS)

Saints are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games when playing as the underdog.

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