Nov 1, 2020; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Dallas Cowboys offensive guard Zack Martin (70) prepares for the snap against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Cowboys Eagles Pick, Dallas Covers in Philly

The Dallas Cowboys will play to win. The Philadelphia Eagles may turn the other cheek and let their hated division rival leave town with an easy victory.

Week 18 sees an NFC East battle where both teams are headed for the playoffs. But while slumping Dallas says it will play its starters and get ready for the playoffs, Philly coach Nick Sirianni hasn’t decided who will play.

Most of the trends and logic point to Dallas winning, but can they cover an-ever expanding point spread (7.5 points as of Wednesday at FanDuel) at Philly?

Cowboys Eagles Prediction: Odds PHI +7.5, Total 42.5 @ FanDuel | Matchup Report

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Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Dallas has superior talent and may use it all on Saturday. Philly may rest starters, even if the 12 players who went into Covid protocol Monday are eligible to return. The line opened at 3.5 points but jumped four points and the fact Philly can’t really improve its situation means it makes sense to rest some veterans.

Dallas has owned the NFC to the tune of 10-1 ATS lately and is 14-6 ATS in 20 recent divisional games. And the Eagles seldom win as an underdog (3-13 SU past 16 games when catching points). Add those trends to a 7-1 ATS streak on the road and you have a recipe for a Cowboys cover, even with their ugly January streak weighing them down.

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

Because Dallas is playing poorly and are atrocious in January. The Cowboys have failed to cover 7 straight January games and that trend of ATS incompetence stretches back decades (4-17 ATS past 21 games).

Philly may be able to grind the ball on the ground, regardless of who is playing and that could get the Cowboys anxious. The Eagles meanwhile are 7-2 ATS when the dates flip to January and have won 9 of 10 SU when playing divisional home games.

Cowboys Eagles Prediction

The Dallas January doldrums are glaring, but its hard to imagine the Cowboys not covering a short-staffed Eagles team to end the season.

Dallas -7.5 (I would feel safe up to -10 if the Eagles rest multiple starters)

Philly Dallas Prop Picks – Anytime TD

Tyree Jackson +550 (DraftKings)

Both other tight ends are currently on the Covid list.

Cedrick Wilson +230 (FanDuel)

He has six targets last week.

J.J Arcega-Whiteside +1100 (DraftKings)

He is going to see a ton of playing time.

Dallas Philadelphia Betting Trends

UNDER is 11-2 Philadelphia’s last 13 games played in January.

UNDER is 9-3 past 12 meetings in Philly

Eagles are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games when playing as the underdog.

Cowboys are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games played in January.

Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against an opponent in the NFC.

Cowboys played 6 straight divisional road UNDERs

Cowboys are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games

Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road

Cowboys 14-6 ATS in their last 20 divisional games

Cowboys failed to cover 7 straight games in January, 4-17 ATS in their last 21 in Jan

Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games played in January.

Eagles 9-1 SU past 10 divisional home games (just 5-4-1 ATS)


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