Sep 11, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA;  Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) in action during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Cowboys Bucs Pick, Brady Bests Dak

Two teams coming off humiliating losses meet to wrap up Wild Card weekend and Dallas is a small road favorite at Tampa Bay.

The Bucs catch 2.5 points at FanDuel, but arrive with a 2-12-1 ATS streak since Week 3. Meanwhile the Cowboys are almost a certain losing bet in January as their 2-12 ATS run suggests.

So which disappointing team moves on? Tom Brady is 7-0 lifetime vs Dallas and the Cowboys haven’t been a playoff road favorite since 1997 when Hall of Famer Troy Aikman lost to non-Hall of Famer Kerry Collins at Carolina.

Cowboys Bucs Pick: Odds TB +2.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Report

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Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

If the Dallas defense plays to its potential, Tom Brady will have to speed up his delivery even more to keep Micah Parsons off him. And if the Cowboys offense plays to its potential, Dallas could be far ahead against offense-challenged Tampa.

If you are worried about Dak Prescott’s 7-game INT streak, then game-plan around Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard to limit those errors. The Cowboys have won 10 of their past 12 Monday Nighters and are 12-5 ATS in their past 17 road games.

Why the Bucs can cover the spread

Brady has never lost to the Cowboys so why start now? Dallas is 1-6 ATS in their past 7 playoff games and they have a knack for gagging in January.

So Brady gets the ball out quickly to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, neutralizing the Dallas pass rush. If they back off, use Lenny Fournette to bash the run game. This seems like a game where the veteran Bucs can frustrate the Cowboys and their terrible coaching staff.

Cowboys Bucs Pick

Do you really trust Dallas to come up big here? We don’t and lean on Brady to keep it close and steal a late win. We would play Tampa on the ML and like the +2.5 points.

Cowboys Bucs Anytime TD Props

Mike Evans +200

Evans has struggled this season, but it’s not crazy to see him come alive in the playoffs. These are great odds.

Michael Gallup +270

Gallup has 17 targets and a touchdown in his last three games

Cade Otton +550

Otton has solidified himself as the starting tight end.

Cowboys Bucs Betting Trends

Bucs are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played in January.

Bucs are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games.

Cowboys are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games played in January.

Cowboys are 10-2 SU in their last 12 Monday Night road games

UNDER is 12-3 past 15 meetings

Cowboys are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on the road

Cowboys are 1-6 ATS past 7 playoff games

Last time Cowboys were playoff road chalk they were upset at Carolina Jan 5, 1997 (Kerry Collins beat Troy Aikman)


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